ArticleParasites & vectors2018
The spatial and temporal scales of local dengue virus transmission in natural settings: a retrospective analysis.
Article in Parasites & vectors, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Household and community drivers of Aedes aegypti infestation in tropical cities: Guiding community-led interventions.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Hybrid Machine Learning Approach to Zero-Inflated Data Improves Accuracy of Dengue Prediction.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- Detecting the impacts of humidity, rainfall, temperature, and season on chikungunya, dengue and Zika viruses in Aedes albopictus mosquitoes from selected sites in Cebu city, Philippines.Virology journal · 2024Article
- A Maximum Entropy Model of the Distribution of Dengue Serotype in Mexico.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2023Article
- Independent evaluation of Wolbachia infected male mosquito releases for control of Aedes aegypti in Harris County, Texas, using a Bayesian abundance estimator.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Virological Surveillance of Aedes aegypti Vectors Identifies All Four Dengue Serotypes in a Hyperendemic Region.EcoHealth · 2022Article
- Spatiotemporal high-resolution prediction and mapping: methodology and application to dengue disease.Journal of geographical systems · 2022Article
- Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles.PLoS medicine · 2021Article
- Seroprevalence and associated risk factors of Dengue fever in Kassala state, eastern Sudan.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Article
- Control of dengue virus in the midgut of Aedes aegypti by ectopic expression of the dsRNA-binding protein Loqs2.Nature microbiology · 2018Article
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12 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundDengue is a vector-borne disease caused by the dengue virus (DENV). Despite the crucial role of Aedes mosquitoes in DENV transmission, pure vector indices poorly correlate with human infections. Therefore there is great need for a better understanding of the spatial and temporal scales of DENV transmission between mosquitoes and humans. Here, we have systematically monitored the circulation of DENV in individual Aedes spp. mosquitoes and human patients from Caratinga, a dengue endemic city in the state of Minas Gerais, in Southeast Brazil. From these data, we have developed a novel stochastic point process pattern algorithm to identify the spatial and temporal association between DENV infected mosquitoes and human patients.
methodsThe algorithm comprises of: (i) parameterization of the variogram for the incidence of each DENV serotype in mosquitoes; (ii) identification of the spatial and temporal ranges and variances of DENV incidence in mosquitoes in the proximity of humans infected with dengue; and (iii) analysis of the association between a set of environmental variables and DENV incidence in mosquitoes in the proximity of humans infected with dengue using a spatio-temporal additive, geostatistical linear model.
resultsDENV serotypes 1 and 3 were the most common virus serotypes detected in both mosquitoes and humans. Using the data on each virus serotype separately, our spatio-temporal analyses indicated that infected humans were located in areas with the highest DENV incidence in mosquitoes, when incidence is calculated within 2.5-3 km and 50 days (credible interval 30-70 days) before onset of symptoms in humans. These measurements are in agreement with expected distances covered by mosquitoes and humans and the time for virus incubation. Finally, DENV incidence in mosquitoes found in the vicinity of infected humans correlated well with the low wind speed, higher air temperature and northerly winds that were more likely to favor vector survival and dispersal in Caratinga.
conclusionsWe have proposed a new way of modeling bivariate point pattern on the transmission of arthropod-borne pathogens between vector and host when the location of infection in the latter is known. This strategy avoids some of the strong and unrealistic assumptions made by other point-process models. Regarding virus transmission in Caratinga, our model showed a strong and significant association between high DENV incidence in mosquitoes and the onset of symptoms in humans at specific spatial and temporal windows. Together, our results indicate that vector surveillance must be a priority for dengue control. Nevertheless, localized vector control at distances lower than 2.5 km around premises with infected vectors in densely populated areas are not likely to be effective.
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