Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29388521›Full record

ArticleBJPsych bulletin2018

External validity and anchoring heuristics: application of DUNDRUM-1 to secure service gatekeeping in South Wales.

Daniel Lawrence, Tracey-Lee Davies, Ruth Bagshaw, Paul Hewlett, Pamela Taylor, Andrew Watt

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BJPsych bulletin, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Race, restriction, risk and reconviction: findings from an England and Wales medium secure cohort.Psychiatry, psychology, and law : an interdisciplinary journal of the Australian and New Zealand Association of Psychiatry, Psychology and Law · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Examining the need for a high level of therapeutic security at a regional forensic mental health service in Aotearoa New Zealand.Psychiatry, psychology, and law : an interdisciplinary journal of the Australian and New Zealand Association of Psychiatry, Psychology and Law · 2024
    Article
  8. Observational
  9. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Daniel LawrencePriory Group & Partnerships in Care,UK.
Tracey-Lee DaviesPriory Group & Partnerships in Care,UK.
Ruth BagshawSouth Wales Forensic Mental Health Service,Bridgend.
Paul HewlettPriory Group & Partnerships in Care,UK.
Pamela TaylorSouth Wales Forensic Mental Health Service,Bridgend.
Andrew WattPriory Group & Partnerships in Care,UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Aims and method Structured clinical judgement tools provide scope for the standardisation of forensic service gatekeeping and also allow identification of heuristics in this decision process. The DUNDRUM-1 triage tool was completed retrospectively for 121 first-time referrals to forensic services in South Wales. Fifty were admitted to medium security, 49 to low security and 22 remained in open conditions.

resultsDUNDRUM-1 total scores differed appropriately between different levels of security. However, regression revealed heuristic anchoring on the 'legal process' and 'immediacy of risk due to mental disorder' items. Clinical implications Patient placement was broadly aligned with DUNDRUM-1 recommendations. However, not all triage items informed gatekeeping decisions. It remains to be seen whether decisions anchored in this way are effective. Declaration of interest Dr Mark Freestone gave permission for AUC values from Freestone et al. (2015) to be presented here for comparison.

Identifiers

PMID29388521
PMCPMC6001864

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.