Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29386542›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2018

Development and validation of risk prediction models for cardiovascular mortality in Chinese people initialising peritoneal dialysis: a cohort study.

Dahai Yu, Yamei Cai, Ying Chen, Tao Chen, Rui Qin, Zhanzheng Zhao, David Simmons

Erratum issuedAbstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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  7. The significance of follow-up serum uric acid levels in predicting all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients.Therapeutic apheresis and dialysis : official peer-reviewed journal of the International Society for Apheresis, the Japanese Society for Apheresis, the Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Dahai YuDepartment of Nephrology, the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450052, China.
Yamei CaiDepartment of Nephrology, the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450052, China.
Ying ChenDepartment of Nephrology, the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450052, China.
Tao ChenDepartment of Nephrology, the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450052, China.
Rui QinJiangsu Province Hospital on Integration of Chinese and Western Medicine, Nanjing, 210028, China.
Zhanzheng ZhaoDepartment of Nephrology, the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450052, China. zhanzhengzhao@zzu.edu.cn.
David SimmonsWestern Sydney University, Campbelltown, Sydney, NSW 2751, Australia. dsworkster@gmail.com.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death among patients receiving peritoneal dialysis. We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for cardiovascular death within 2 years after the initiation of peritoneal dialysis (PD). A cohort including all patients registered with the Henan Peritoneal Dialysis Registry (HPDR) between 2007 and 2014. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the risk prediction model. The HPDR data was randomly divided into two cohorts with 60% (1,835 patients) for model derivation, and 40% (1,219 patients) for model validation. The absolute rate of cardiovascular mortality was 14.2% and 14.4 in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. Age, body mass index, blood pressure, serum lipids, fasting glucose, sodium, albumin, total protein, and phosphorus were the strongest predictors of cardiovascular mortality in the final model. Discrimination of the model was similar in both cohorts, with a C statistic above 0.70, with good calibration of observed and predicted risks. The new prediction model that has been developed and validated with clinical measurements that are available at the point of initiation of PD and could serve as a tool to screen for patients at high risk of cardiovascular death and tailor more intensive cardio-protective care.

Indexed as

Asian PeopleModels, CardiovascularRisk AssessmentCalibrationCardiovascular DiseasesCohort StudiesFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedMultivariate AnalysisPeritoneal DialysisReproducibility of ResultsRisk Factors

Identifiers

PMID29386542
PMCPMC5792639

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.