Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29377891›Full record

ArticlePloS one2018

The development of a stochastic mathematical model of Alzheimer's disease to help improve the design of clinical trials of potential treatments.

Christoforos Hadjichrysanthou, Alison K Ower, Frank de Wolf, Roy M Anderson, Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed
3.7field-weighted citation impact, top 6% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed, 34 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Trial
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  7. A glance through the effects of CD4Computational and structural biotechnology journal · 2023
    Review
  8. Review
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  11. Dynamical Modeling as a Tool for Inferring Causation.American journal of epidemiology · 2022
    Article
  12. Article
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  15. Current and Future Treatments in Alzheimer Disease: An Update.Journal of central nervous system disease · 2020
    Review
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  17. Article
  18. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Christoforos HadjichrysanthouDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-6166-5899
Alison K OwerDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Frank de WolfDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Roy M AndersonDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative
Imperial College London · GBJanssen (Netherlands) · NL

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterised by a slow progressive deterioration of cognitive capacity. Drugs are urgently needed for the treatment of AD and unfortunately almost all clinical trials of AD drug candidates have failed or been discontinued to date. Mathematical, computational and statistical tools can be employed in the construction of clinical trial simulators to assist in the improvement of trial design and enhance the chances of success of potential new therapies. Based on the analysis of a set of clinical data provided by the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) we developed a simple stochastic mathematical model to simulate the development and progression of Alzheimer's in a longitudinal cohort study. We show how this modelling framework could be used to assess the effect and the chances of success of hypothetical treatments that are administered at different stages and delay disease development. We demonstrate that the detection of the true efficacy of an AD treatment can be very challenging, even if the treatment is highly effective. An important reason behind the inability to detect signals of efficacy in a clinical trial in this therapy area could be the high between- and within-individual variability in the measurement of diagnostic markers and endpoints, which consequently results in the misdiagnosis of an individual's disease state.

Indexed as

Decision Support TechniquesAlzheimer DiseaseBiomarkersBiometryCohort StudiesDiagnostic ErrorsDisease ProgressionHumansLongitudinal StudiesMathematical ComputingModels, TheoreticalProbabilityResearch DesignStochastic ProcessesBiomarkers

Identifiers

PMID29377891
PMCPMC5788351
OpenAlexW2790250792

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.