Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29349533›Full record

ArticleEcoHealth2018

Hendra Virus Spillover is a Bimodal System Driven by Climatic Factors.

Gerardo Martin, Carlos Yanez-Arenas, Raina K Plowright, Carla Chen, Billie Roberts, Lee F Skerratt

Abstract read
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in EcoHealth, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  13. The problem of scale in the prediction and management of pathogen spillover.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2019
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Gerardo MartinOne Health Research Group, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia. gerardommc@gmail.com.
Carlos Yanez-ArenasLaboratorio de Conservación de la Biodiversidad, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Yucatán, Universidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico.
Raina K PlowrightBozeman Disease Ecology Lab, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA.
Carla ChenAustralian Institute of Marine Sciences, Townsville, QLD, Australia.
Billie RobertsGriffith School of Environment, Griffith University, Nathan, QLD, Australia.
Lee F SkerrattOne Health Research Group, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia.

Funding

Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation PRJ-008213
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Understanding environmental factors driving spatiotemporal patterns of disease can improve risk mitigation strategies. Hendra virus (HeV), discovered in Australia in 1994, spills over from bats (Pteropus sp.) to horses and thence to humans. Below latitude - 22°, almost all spillover events to horses occur during winter, and above this latitude spillover is aseasonal. We generated a statistical model of environmental drivers of HeV spillover per month. The model reproduced the spatiotemporal pattern of spillover risk between 1994 and 2015. The model was generated with an ensemble of methods for presence-absence data (boosted regression trees, random forests and logistic regression). Presences were the locations of horse cases, and absences per spatial unit (2.7 × 2.7 km pixels without spillover) were sampled with the horse census of Queensland and New South Wales. The most influential factors indicate that spillover is associated with both cold-dry and wet conditions. Bimodal responses to several variables suggest spillover involves two systems: one above and one below a latitudinal area close to - 22°. Northern spillovers are associated with cold-dry and wet conditions, and southern with cold-dry conditions. Biologically, these patterns could be driven by immune or behavioural changes in response to food shortage in bats and horse husbandry. Future research should look for differences in these traits between seasons in the two latitudinal regions. Based on the predicted risk patterns by latitude, we recommend enhanced preventive management for horses from March to November below latitude 22° south.

Indexed as

AnimalsAustraliaChiropteraClimate ChangeDisease OutbreaksDisease Transmission, InfectiousHenipavirus InfectionsHorse DiseasesHorsesHumansModels, StatisticalSpatio-Temporal AnalysisZoonosesEmerging diseasesFlying foxesHendra virusHorsesSpatiotemporal riskSpillover

Identifiers

PMID29349533

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.