ArticleCancer science2018
Development of a risk prediction model for lung cancer: The Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.
Article in Cancer science, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Prediction models for early detection and diagnosis of lung cancer in people who have never smoked: a systematic review and critical appraisal.Cancer causes & control : CCC · 2026Pooled it
- A systematic review and meta-analysis of lung cancer risk prediction models.Acta oncologica (Stockholm, Sweden) · 2025Pooled it
- Predicting lung cancer stage at diagnosis based on self-reported symptoms and background factors using machine learning models.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Assessment and recalibration of seventeen lung cancer risk prediction models in approximately one million Chinese population utilising healthcare big data: a retrospective cohort analysis.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- [Construction of a Risk Prediction Model for Lung Cancer Based on Lifestyle Behaviors in the UK Biobank Large-Scale Population Cohort].Sichuan da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Sichuan University. Medical science edition · 2023Article
- Lung cancer risk score for ever and never smokers in China.Cancer communications (London, England) · 2023Article
- Age-dependent genomic characteristics and their impact on immunotherapy in lung adenocarcinoma.Journal of cancer research and clinical oncology · 2023Article
- Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Nomogram in Nonsmoking Chinese Women: Retrospective Cross-sectional Cohort Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Article
- Risk-based prediction model for selecting eligible population for lung cancer screening among ever smokers in Korea.Translational lung cancer research · 2021Article
- Construction and Validation of a Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model for Non-Smokers in China.Frontiers in oncology · 2021Article
- Risk prediction model for lung cancer incorporating metabolic markers: Development and internal validation in a Chinese population.Cancer medicine · 2020Article
- Comparing the preclinical risk profile of inhalable candidate and potential candidate modified risk tobacco products: A bridging use case.Toxicology reports · 2020Article
- Prediction of the 1-Year Risk of Incident Lung Cancer: Prospective Study Using Electronic Health Records from the State of Maine.Journal of medical Internet research · 2019Article
- Predicting the Epidemiological Dynamics of Lung Cancer in Japan.Journal of clinical medicine · 2019Article
- Development of a risk prediction model for lung cancer: The Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.Cancer science · 2018Article
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10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Although the impact of tobacco consumption on the occurrence of lung cancer is well-established, risk estimation could be improved by risk prediction models that consider various smoking habits, such as quantity, duration, and time since quitting. We constructed a risk prediction model using a population of 59 161 individuals from the Japan Public Health Center (JPHC) Study Cohort II. A parametric survival model was used to assess the impact of age, gender, and smoking-related factors (cumulative smoking intensity measured in pack-years, age at initiation, and time since cessation). Ten-year cumulative probability of lung cancer occurrence estimates were calculated with consideration of the competing risk of death from other causes. Finally, the model was externally validated using 47 501 individuals from JPHC Study Cohort I. A total of 1210 cases of lung cancer occurred during 986 408 person-years of follow-up. We found a dose-dependent effect of tobacco consumption with hazard ratios for current smokers ranging from 3.78 (2.00-7.16) for cumulative consumption ≤15 pack-years to 15.80 (9.67-25.79) for >75 pack-years. Risk decreased with time since cessation. Ten-year cumulative probability of lung cancer occurrence estimates ranged from 0.04% to 11.14% in men and 0.07% to 6.55% in women. The model showed good predictive performance regarding discrimination (cross-validated c-index = 0.793) and calibration (cross-validated χ
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