ArticleTheoretical biology & medical modelling2018
Time-homogeneous Markov process for HIV/AIDS progression under a combination treatment therapy: cohort study, South Africa.
Article in Theoretical biology & medical modelling, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Advanced statistical approaches in tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment outcomes in Africa: a systematic review.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Review
- From network biology to immunity: potential longitudinal biomarkers for targeting the network topology of the HIV reservoir.Journal of translational medicine · 2025Review
- A Multistate Continuous Time-Inhomogeneous Markov Model for Assessing the CD4 Count Dynamics of HIV/AIDS Patients Undergoing Antiretroviral Therapy in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
- Time-Homogeneous Markov Modeling of HIV Progression in Patients Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy Treatment in the Ashanti Region, Ghana.The Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale · 2025Article
- Distinguishable topology of the task-evoked functional genome networks in HIV-1 reservoirs.iScience · 2024Article
- Examining annual transitions in healthcare spending among U.S. medicare beneficiaries using multistate Markov models: Analysis of medicare current beneficiary survey data, 2003-2019.Preventive medicine reports · 2023Article
- Bayesian Analysis of First-Order Markov Models for Autocorrelated Binary Responses.Journal of statistical theory and practice · 2023Article
- Markov modelling of viral load adjusting for CD4 orthogonal variable and multivariate conditional autoregressive mapping of the HIV immunological outcomes among ART patients in Zimbabwe.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2021Article
- Association of Hepatitis B Core-Related Antigen and Antihepatitis B Core Antibody With Liver Fibrosis Evolution in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Hepatitis B Virus Coinfected Patients During Treatment With Tenofovir.Open forum infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Modelling immune deterioration, immune recovery and state-specific duration of HIV-infected women with viral load adjustment: using parametric multistate model.BMC public health · 2020Article
- HIV Disease Progression Among Antiretroviral Therapy Patients in Zimbabwe: A Multistate Markov Model.Frontiers in public health · 2019Article
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Abstract
backgroundAs HIV enters the human body, its main target is the CD4 cell which it turns into a factory that produces millions of other HIV particles. These HIV particles target new CD4 cells resulting in the progression of HIV infection to AIDS. A continuous depletion of CD4 cells results in opportunistic infections, for example tuberculosis (TB). The purpose of this study is to model and describe the progression of HIV/AIDS disease in an individual on antiretroviral therapy (ART) follow up using a continuous time homogeneous Markov process. A cohort of 319 HIV infected patients on ART follow up at a Wellness Clinic in Bela Bela, South Africa is used in this study. Though Markov models based on CD4 cell counts is a common approach in HIV/AIDS modelling, this paper is unique clinically in that tuberculosis (TB) co-infection is included as a covariate.
methodsThe method partitions the HIV infection period into five CD4-cell count intervals followed by the end points; death, and withdrawal from study. The effectiveness of treatment is analysed by comparing the forward transitions with the backward transitions. The effects of reaction to treatment, TB co-infection, gender and age on the transition rates are also examined. The developed models give very good fit to the data.
resultsThe results show that the strongest predictor of transition from a state of CD4 cell count greater than 750 to a state of CD4 between 500 and 750 is a negative reaction to drug therapy. Development of TB during the course of treatment is the greatest predictor of transitions to states of lower CD4 cell count. Transitions from good states to bad states are higher on male patients than their female counterparts. Patients in the cohort spend a greater proportion of their total follow-up time in higher CD4 states.
conclusionFrom some of these findings we conclude that there is need to monitor adverse reaction to drugs more frequently, screen HIV/AIDS patients for any signs and symptoms of TB and check for factors that may explain gender differences further.
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