ArticleBMC public health2018
The slowing pace of life expectancy gains since 1950.
Article in BMC public health, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Generating and capitalizing on the demographic dividend potential in sub-Saharan Africa: a conceptual framework from a systematic literature review.Gates open research · 2020Pooled it
- Biological Restraints on Indefinite Survival.Cold Spring Harbor perspectives in medicine · 2023Review
- Live and let live: understanding the temporal drivers and spillovers of life expectancy in Europe for public planning.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2023Article
- Why Gilgamesh failed: the mechanistic basis of the limits to human lifespan.Nature aging · 2022Review
- The ups and downs of caloric restriction and fasting: from molecular effects to clinical application.EMBO molecular medicine · 2022Review
- Article
- Global health activists' lessons on building social movements for Health for All.International journal for equity in health · 2020Article
- Life Expectancy: Frequently Used, but Hardly Understood.Gerontology · 2020Review
- Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016-40 for 195 countries and territories.Lancet (London, England) · 2018 · on this mapArticle
- Punching above their weight: a network to understand broader determinants of increasing life expectancy.International journal for equity in health · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundNew technological breakthroughs in biomedicine should have made it easier for countries to improve life expectancy at birth (LEB). This paper measures the pace of improvement in the decadal gains of LEB, for the last 60-years adjusting for each country's starting point of LEB.
methodsLEB increases over the next 10-years for 139 countries between 1950 and 2009 were regressed on LEB, GDP, total fertility rate, population density, CO2 emissions, and HIV prevalence using country-specific fixed effects and time-dummies. Analysis grouped countries into one-of-four strata: LEB < 51, 51 ≤ LEB < 61, 61 ≤ LEB < 71, and LEB ≥ 71.
resultsThe rate of increase of LEB has fallen consistently since 1950 across all strata. Results hold in unadjusted analysis and in the regression-adjusted analysis. LEB decadal gains fell from 4.80 (IQR: 2.98-6.20) years in the 1950s to 2.39 (IQR:1.80-2.80) years in the 2000s for the healthiest countries (LEB ≥ 71). For countries with the lowest LEB (LEB < 51), decadal gains fell from 7.38 (IQR:4.83-9.25) years in the 1950s to negative 6.82 (IQR: -12.95--1.05) years in the 2000s. Multivariate analysis controlling for HIV prevalence, GDP, and other covariates shows a negative effect of time on LEB decadal gains among all strata.
conclusionsContrary to the expectation that advances in health technology and spending would hasten improvements in LEB, we found that the pace-of-growth of LEB has slowed around the world.
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