Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29339427›Full record

ArticlemBio2018

Pandemic Paradox: Early Life H2N2 Pandemic Influenza Infection Enhanced Susceptibility to Death during the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic.

Alain Gagnon, Enrique Acosta, Stacey Hallman, Robert Bourbeau, Lisa Y Dillon, Nadine Ouellette, David J D Earn, D Ann Herring, Kris Inwood, Joaquin Madrenas and 1 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in mBio, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed
5.3field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 51 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.

Alain Gagnon *Department of Demography, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Canada.
Enrique Acosta *Department of Demography, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Canada.
Stacey HallmanStatistics Canada, Ottawa, Canada.
Robert BourbeauDepartment of Demography, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Canada.
Lisa Y DillonDepartment of Demography, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Canada.
Nadine OuelletteDepartment of Demography, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Canada.
David J D EarnDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada.
D Ann HerringDepartment of Anthropology, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada.
Kris InwoodDepartment of Economics and Finance, Department of History, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada.
Joaquin MadrenasLos Angeles Biomedical Research Institute at Harbor, UCLA Medical Center, Los Angeles, California, USA.
Matthew S Miller *Michael G. DeGroote Institute for Infectious Diseases Research, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada mmiller@mcmaster.ca.
Université de Montréal · CAMcMaster University · CAStatistics Canada · CAThe Lundquist Institute · USUniversity of Guelph · CA

Funding

CIHR
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Recent outbreaks of H5, H7, and H9 influenza A viruses in humans have served as a vivid reminder of the potentially devastating effects that a novel pandemic could exert on the modern world. Those who have survived infections with influenza viruses in the past have been protected from subsequent antigenically similar pandemics through adaptive immunity. For example, during the 2009 H1N1 "swine flu" pandemic, those exposed to H1N1 viruses that circulated between 1918 and the 1940s were at a decreased risk for mortality as a result of their previous immunity. It is also generally thought that past exposures to antigenically dissimilar strains of influenza virus may also be beneficial due to cross-reactive cellular immunity. However, cohorts born during prior heterosubtypic pandemics have previously experienced elevated risk of death relative to surrounding cohorts of the same population. Indeed, individuals born during the 1890 H3Nx pandemic experienced the highest levels of excess mortality during the 1918 "Spanish flu." Applying Serfling models to monthly mortality and influenza circulation data between October 1997 and July 2014 in the United States and Mexico, we show corresponding peaks in excess mortality during the 2009 H1N1 "swine flu" pandemic and during the resurgent 2013-2014 H1N1 outbreak for those born at the time of the 1957 H2N2 "Asian flu" pandemic. We suggest that the phenomenon observed in 1918 is not unique and points to exposure to pandemic influenza early in life as a risk factor for mortality during subsequent heterosubtypic pandemics.

Indexed as

Disease SusceptibilityHumansInfluenza A Virus, H1N1 SubtypeInfluenza A Virus, H2N2 SubtypeInfluenza, HumanMexicoRisk FactorsUnited Statesinfluenza virusmortalitypandemicssusceptibility

Identifiers

PMID29339427
PMCPMC5770550
OpenAlexW2784248396

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.