Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29337724›Full record

ReviewAnesthesia and analgesia2018

Statistical Significance Versus Clinical Importance of Observed Effect Sizes: What Do P Values and Confidence Intervals Really Represent?

Patrick Schober, Sebastiaan M Bossers, Lothar A Schwarte

Abstract readComparative StudyReview
In one paragraph

Review in Anesthesia and analgesia, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 70 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
70citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

70 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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10 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Patrick SchoberFrom the Department of Anesthesiology, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Sebastiaan M Bossers
Lothar A Schwarte

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Effect size measures are used to quantify treatment effects or associations between variables. Such measures, of which >70 have been described in the literature, include unstandardized and standardized differences in means, risk differences, risk ratios, odds ratios, or correlations. While null hypothesis significance testing is the predominant approach to statistical inference on effect sizes, results of such tests are often misinterpreted, provide no information on the magnitude of the estimate, and tell us nothing about the clinically importance of an effect. Hence, researchers should not merely focus on statistical significance but should also report the observed effect size. However, all samples are to some degree affected by randomness, such that there is a certain uncertainty on how well the observed effect size represents the actual magnitude and direction of the effect in the population. Therefore, point estimates of effect sizes should be accompanied by the entire range of plausible values to quantify this uncertainty. This facilitates assessment of how large or small the observed effect could actually be in the population of interest, and hence how clinically important it could be. This tutorial reviews different effect size measures and describes how confidence intervals can be used to address not only the statistical significance but also the clinical significance of the observed effect or association. Moreover, we discuss what P values actually represent, and how they provide supplemental information about the significant versus nonsignificant dichotomy. This tutorial intentionally focuses on an intuitive explanation of concepts and interpretation of results, rather than on the underlying mathematical theory or concepts.

Indexed as

Data Interpretation, StatisticalUncertaintyConfidence IntervalsHumansResearch Design

Identifiers

PMID29337724
PMCPMC5811238

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.