Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29330654›Full record

ArticleObesity surgery2018

Risk Prediction Model for Severe Postoperative Complication in Bariatric Surgery.

Erik Stenberg, Yang Cao, Eva Szabo, Erik Näslund, Ingmar Näslund, Johan Ottosson

Open access · hybridAbstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in Obesity surgery, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
5.2field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 50 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Erik StenbergDepartment of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden. erik.stenberg@regionorebrolan.se.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9189-0093
Yang CaoClinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medical Sciences, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden.
Eva SzaboDepartment of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden.
Erik NäslundDivision of Surgery, Department of Clinical Sciences, Danderyd Hospital, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Ingmar NäslundDepartment of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden.
Johan OttossonDepartment of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden.
Örebro University · SEKarolinska Institutet · SE

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundFactors associated with risk for adverse outcome are important considerations in the preoperative assessment of patients for bariatric surgery. As yet, prediction models based on preoperative risk factors have not been able to predict adverse outcome sufficiently.

objectiveThis study aimed to identify preoperative risk factors and to construct a risk prediction model based on these.

methodsPatients who underwent a bariatric surgical procedure in Sweden between 2010 and 2014 were identified from the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry (SOReg). Associations between preoperative potential risk factors and severe postoperative complications were analysed using a logistic regression model. A multivariate model for risk prediction was created and validated in the SOReg for patients who underwent bariatric surgery in Sweden, 2015.

resultsRevision surgery (standardized OR 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-0.24, p < 0.001), age (standardized OR 1.10, 95%CI 1.03-1.17, p = 0.007), low body mass index (standardized OR 0.89, 95%CI 0.82-0.98, p = 0.012), operation year (standardized OR 0.91, 95%CI 0.85-0.97, p = 0.003), waist circumference (standardized OR 1.09, 95%CI 1.00-1.19, p = 0.059), and dyspepsia/GERD (standardized OR 1.08, 95%CI 1.02-1.15, p = 0.007) were all associated with risk for severe postoperative complication and were included in the risk prediction model. Despite high specificity, the sensitivity of the model was low.

conclusionRevision surgery, high age, low BMI, large waist circumference, and dyspepsia/GERD were associated with an increased risk for severe postoperative complication. The prediction model based on these factors, however, had a sensitivity that was too low to predict risk in the individual patient case.

Indexed as

Logistic ModelsRegistriesAdultBariatric SurgeryBody Mass IndexFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedObesity, MorbidPostoperative ComplicationsRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsSwedenWaist CircumferenceWeight LossBariatric surgeryMorbid obesityPostoperative complicationPrediction modelRisk factor

Identifiers

PMID29330654
PMCPMC6018582
OpenAlexW2783663642

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.