Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29330216›Full record

ArticleEvidence-based mental health2018

Is placebo response in antidepressant trials rising or not? A reanalysis of datasets to conclude this long-lasting controversy.

Toshi A Furukawa, Andrea Cipriani, Stefan Leucht, Lauren Z Atkinson, Yusuke Ogawa, Nozomi Takeshima, Yu Hayasaka, Anna Chaimani, Georgia Salanti

Abstract readComment
In one paragraph

Article in Evidence-based mental health, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 8 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed, 8 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 8 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  16. The evidence-based group-level symptom-reduction model as the organizing principle for mental health care: time for change?World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA) · 2019
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Toshi A FurukawaDepartments of Health Promotion and Human Behavior and Clinical Epidemiology, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine/ School of Public Health, Kyoto, Japan.ORCID 0000-0003-2159-3776
Andrea CiprianiDepartment of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Stefan LeuchtDepartment of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Technische Universität München, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Munich, Germany.
Lauren Z AtkinsonDepartment of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Yusuke OgawaDepartments of Health Promotion and Human Behavior and Clinical Epidemiology, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine/ School of Public Health, Kyoto, Japan.
Nozomi TakeshimaDepartments of Health Promotion and Human Behavior and Clinical Epidemiology, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine/ School of Public Health, Kyoto, Japan.
Yu HayasakaDepartments of Health Promotion and Human Behavior and Clinical Epidemiology, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine/ School of Public Health, Kyoto, Japan.
Anna ChaimaniSchool of Medicine, Paris Descartes University, Paris, France.
Georgia SalantiInstitute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

It had long been believed that placebo response rates in antidepressant trials have been increasing and that they were responsible for rising numbers of so-called failed antidepressant trials. Two recent systematic reviews examined this issue and reached completely opposite findings. Furukawa and colleagues in a paper published in 2016 found that the placebo response rates are stable since 1991 and the apparent increase up to 2000 was confounded by changes in trial design features. By contrast, Khan and colleagues more recently concluded that placebo response rates had grown steadily in the past 30 years. The two reviews differed in the datasets they used, definitions of placebo response and statistical analyses. In this perspective article, we examined if such differences were responsible for the two reviews' contrasting conclusions. Our reanalyses confirmed our previous results. We found that in any dataset and for any placebo response definition, there was no increase in placebo response over the years when the analysis was adjusted for the confounders related to study design features or when it was limited to studies published after 1990s. We conclude that placebo response in antidepressant trials has remained stable for the past 25 years, during which time the large majority of the studies have come to share similar design features.

Indexed as

Antidepressive AgentsClinical Trials as TopicHumansPlacebo EffectStatistics as TopicAntidepressive Agentsdepression & mood disorders

Identifiers

PMID29330216
PMCPMC10270408

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.