ArticleHuman resources for health2018
Forecasting imbalances in the global health labor market and devising policy responses.
Article in Human resources for health, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 49 papers.
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Who cites it
49 citing papers in PubMed.
- Ischemic heart disease burden and healthcare system readiness across sub-Saharan Africa.Nature cardiovascular research · 2026Review
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- Building the future health workforce: outreach pathways and the Holistic Ecosystem Model.Frontiers in medicine · 2026Article
- Summative evaluation of the rural surgical obstetrical networks initiative: Findings from a five year retrospective qualitative study.PloS one · 2026Article
- Audit of pre-transfusion testing practices in hospital blood banks across Tanzania: A national survey.African journal of laboratory medicine · 2026Article
- GDP per capita and physician migration across world regions, 2000-2021.Globalization and health · 2025Article
- Health worker unemployment in countries with critical health worker shortages: a rapid synthesis of evidence from 33 countries.BMJ global health · 2025Review
- Health Workers in Sub-Saharan Africa: Concurrent Skilled Health Worker Shortages and Under-Employment.The International journal of health planning and management · 2025Article
- Family-Centred Care among Caregivers of Children with Disabilities in Selected Paediatric Rehabilitation Centres in Rwanda: A Cross-Sectional Study.Rwanda journal of medicine and health sciences · 2025Article
- Challenges in oral health practice in Somalia: a call for regulatory strengthening and inclusion into primary healthcare services.BMC oral health · 2024Article
- State of the health workforce in the WHO African Region: decade review of progress and opportunities for policy reforms and investments.BMJ global health · 2024Review
- Projected health workforce requirements and shortage for addressing the disease burden in the WHO Africa Region, 2022-2030: a needs-based modelling study.BMJ global health · 2024Article
- Challenges in accessing patient-centered care and patient empowerment in selected Ghanaian hospitals.Health SA = SA Gesondheid · 2024Article
- Systems that evaluate international equivalency in health-related professions: a scoping review with a focus on Canada.Human resources for health · 2023Article
- A novel approach to estimate the impact of health workforce investments on health outcomes through increased coverage of HIV, TB and malaria services.Human resources for health · 2023Article
- Physician density: will we ever close the gap?BMC research notes · 2023Article
- Association between inequalities in human resources for health and all cause and cause specific mortality in 172 countries and territories, 1990-2019: observational study.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2023Observational
- Methods and Tools Used to Estimate the Shortages of Medical Staff in European Countries-Scoping Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- A comparison of patient appraisal of professional skills for GPs in training participating in differing education programs.BMC medical education · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe High-Level Commission on Health Employment and Economic Growth released its report to the United Nations Secretary-General in September 2016. It makes important recommendations that are based on estimates of over 40 million new health sector jobs by 2030 in mostly high- and middle-income countries and a needs-based shortage of 18 million, mostly in low- and middle-income countries. This paper shows how these key findings were developed, the global policy dilemmas they raise, and relevant policy solutions.
methodsRegression analysis is used to produce estimates of health worker need, demand, and supply. Projections of health worker need, demand, and supply in 2030 are made under the assumption that historical trends continue into the future.
resultsTo deliver essential health services required for the universal health coverage target of the Sustainable Development Goal 3, there will be a need for almost 45 million health workers in 2013 which is projected to reach almost 53 million in 2030 (across 165 countries). This results in a needs-based shortage of almost 17 million in 2013. The demand-based results suggest a projected demand of 80 million health workers by 2030.
conclusionsDemand-based analysis shows that high- and middle-income countries will have the economic capacity to employ tens of millions additional health workers, but they could face shortages due to supply not keeping up with demand. By contrast, low-income countries will face both low demand for and supply of health workers. This means that even if countries are able to produce additional workers to meet the need threshold, they may not be able to employ and retain these workers without considerably higher economic growth, especially in the health sector.
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