ArticleBMC infectious diseases2018
The impact of regular school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics: a data-driven spatial transmission model for Belgium.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 50 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
50 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Impact of COVID-19 on School Populations and Associated Factors: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Pooled it
- A Systematic Review of Social Contact Surveys to Inform Transmission Models of Close-contact Infections.Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2019Pooled it
- Links between influenza epidemics, weather characteristics and all-cause mortality in the Czech Republic, 1982-2020.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Trends in antibiotic dispensing for children in Belgian ambulatory care: time series analysis before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.JAC-antimicrobial resistance · 2025Article
- Article
- Integrating dynamical modeling and phylogeographic inference to characterize global influenza circulation.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
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- Impacts of human mobility on the citywide transmission dynamics of 18 respiratory viruses in pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic years.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Integrating dynamical modeling and phylogeographic inference to characterize global influenza circulation.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Assessment the satisfaction level of faculty members from virtual teaching during corona crisis in Rafsanjan School of Medicine.Journal of education and health promotion · 2024Article
- Effect of planned school breaks on student absenteeism due to influenza-like illness in school aged children-Oregon School District, Wisconsin September 2014-June 2019.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2024Article
- Evaluating the Effectiveness of School Closure in COVID-19-Related Syndromes From Community-Based Syndromic Surveillance: Longitudinal Observational Study.Interactive journal of medical research · 2023Article
- Repeatability and timing of tropical influenza epidemics.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Assessing the impact of COVID-19 interventions on the hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangdong Province, China: a Bayesian modeling study.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Exploring human mixing patterns based on time use and social contact data and their implications for infectious disease transmission models.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Assessing the effect of school closures on the spread of COVID-19 in Zurich.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society) · 2022Article
- Spatial aggregation choice in the era of digital and administrative surveillance data.PLOS digital health · 2022Article
- Critical Periods, Critical Time Points and Day-of-the-Week Effects in COVID-19 Surveillance Data: An Example in Middlesex County, Massachusetts, USA.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Characterizing the transmission patterns of seasonal influenza in Italy: lessons from the last decade.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundSchool closure is often considered as an option to mitigate influenza epidemics because of its potential to reduce transmission in children and then in the community. The policy is still however highly debated because of controversial evidence. Moreover, the specific mechanisms leading to mitigation are not clearly identified.
methodsWe introduced a stochastic spatial age-specific metapopulation model to assess the role of holiday-associated behavioral changes and how they affect seasonal influenza dynamics. The model is applied to Belgium, parameterized with country-specific data on social mixing and travel, and calibrated to the 2008/2009 influenza season. It includes behavioral changes occurring during weekend vs. weekday, and holiday vs. school-term. Several experimental scenarios are explored to identify the relevant social and behavioral mechanisms.
resultsStochastic numerical simulations show that holidays considerably delay the peak of the season and mitigate its impact. Changes in mixing patterns are responsible for the observed effects, whereas changes in travel behavior do not alter the epidemic. Weekends are important in slowing down the season by periodically dampening transmission. Christmas holidays have the largest impact on the epidemic, however later school breaks may help in reducing the epidemic size, stressing the importance of considering the full calendar. An extension of the Christmas holiday of 1 week may further mitigate the epidemic.
conclusionChanges in the way individuals establish contacts during holidays are the key ingredient explaining the mitigating effect of regular school closure. Our findings highlight the need to quantify these changes in different demographic and epidemic contexts in order to provide accurate and reliable evaluations of closure effectiveness. They also suggest strategic policies in the distribution of holiday periods to minimize the epidemic impact.
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