ArticleRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis2018
Modeling Poliovirus Transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan to Inform Vaccination Strategies in Undervaccinated Subpopulations.
Article in Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 36 citations in OpenAlex.
- Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020-2024.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Pooled it
- Quantifying the benefits of improved operations for polio outbreak response: A model-based analysis.Vaccine · 2026Article
- Impediments to Progress Toward Polio Eradication During 2014-2024: Effectively Addressing the Current Challenges.Vaccines · 2025Review
- Risk Assessments for Type 1 Wild Poliovirus and Type 2 Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus Importation and Transmission - China, 2023.China CDC weekly · 2024Article
- Increasing Population Immunity Prior to Globally-Coordinated Cessation of Bivalent Oral Poliovirus Vaccine (bOPV).Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Modeling the spread of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreaks and interventions: A case study of Nigeria.Vaccine: X · 2024Article
- Coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine use: Options and potential consequences.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2024Review
- Serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2) choices and the consequences of delaying outbreak response.Vaccine · 2023Article
- Review
- Article
- The impact of disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on global polio eradication.Vaccine · 2023Article
- Modeling undetected live type 1 wild poliovirus circulation after apparent interruption of transmission: Pakistan and Afghanistan.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2023Article
- Modeling scenarios for ending poliovirus transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2023Article
- Looking back at prospective modeling of outbreak response strategies for managing global type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2) cessation.Frontiers in public health · 2023Review
- Effect of Population Partitioning on the Probability of Silent Circulation of Poliovirus.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- Advancing sustainable development goals through immunization: a literature review.Globalization and health · 2021Review
- Modeling Poliovirus Surveillance and Immunization Campaign Quality Monitoring Costs for Pakistan and Afghanistan for 2019-2023.Open forum infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Insights From Modeling Preventive Supplemental Immunization Activities as a Strategy to Eliminate Wild Poliovirus Transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Modeling and Managing Poliovirus Risks: We are Where we are….Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Reflections on Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and the Polio Eradication Endgame.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Due to security, access, and programmatic challenges in areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan, both countries continue to sustain indigenous wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission and threaten the success of global polio eradication and oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation. We fitted an existing differential-equation-based poliovirus transmission and OPV evolution model to Pakistan and Afghanistan using four subpopulations to characterize the well-vaccinated and undervaccinated subpopulations in each country. We explored retrospective and prospective scenarios for using inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in routine immunization or supplemental immunization activities (SIAs). The undervaccinated subpopulations sustain the circulation of serotype 1 WPV and serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus. We find a moderate impact of past IPV use on polio incidence and population immunity to transmission mainly due to (1) the boosting effect of IPV for individuals with preexisting immunity from a live poliovirus infection and (2) the effect of IPV-only on oropharyngeal transmission for individuals without preexisting immunity from a live poliovirus infection. Future IPV use may similarly yield moderate benefits, particularly if access to undervaccinated subpopulations dramatically improves. However, OPV provides a much greater impact on transmission and the incremental benefit of IPV in addition to OPV remains limited. This study suggests that despite the moderate effect of using IPV in SIAs, using OPV in SIAs remains the most effective means to stop transmission, while limited IPV resources should prioritize IPV use in routine immunization.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.