Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29309522›Full record

ArticleAmerican journal of epidemiology2018

Individual and Population Trajectories of Influenza Antibody Titers Over Multiple Seasons in a Tropical Country.

Xiahong Zhao, Yilin Ning, Mark I-Cheng Chen, Alex R Cook

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in American journal of epidemiology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  8. Pathogen Exposure in White Whales (Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022
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  10. Long-Term Persistence of Spike Protein Antibody and Predictive Modeling of Antibody Dynamics After Infection With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2022
    Observational
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Xiahong ZhaoSaw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore.
Yilin NingDepartment of Surgery, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore.
Mark I-Cheng ChenSaw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore.
Alex R CookSaw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Seasonal influenza epidemics occur year-round in the tropics, complicating the planning of vaccination programs. We built an individual-level longitudinal model of baseline antibody levels, time of infection, and the subsequent rise and decay of antibodies postinfection using influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 data from 2 sources in Singapore: 1) a noncommunity cohort with real-time polymerase chain reaction-confirmed infections and at least 1 serological sample collected from each participant between May and October 2009 (n = 118) and 2) a community cohort with up to 6 serological samples collected between May 2009 and October 2010 (n = 760). The model was hierarchical, to account for interval censoring and interindividual variation. Model parameters were estimated via a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm using custom-designed R (https://www.r-project.org/) and C++ (https://isocpp.org/) code. After infection, antibody levels peaked at 4-7 weeks, with a half-life of 26.5 weeks, followed by a slower decrease up to 1 year to approximately preinfection levels. After the third wave, the seropositivity rate and the population-level antibody titer dropped to the same level as they were at the end of the first pandemic wave. The results of this analysis are consistent with the hypothesis that the population-level effect of individuals' waxing and waning antibodies influences influenza seasonality in the tropics.

Indexed as

SeasonsTropical ClimateAntibodies, ViralFemaleHumansInfluenza A Virus, H1N1 SubtypeInfluenza, HumanLongitudinal StudiesMaleMonte Carlo MethodSeroepidemiologic StudiesSingaporeAntibodies, Viralinfluenza antibodiesinfluenza outbreaksseasonalitystatistical modelingtropicsvaccination programs

Identifiers

PMID29309522
PMCPMC5860523

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.