Observational studyThe Permanente journal2018
A Simple Model for Predicting Two-Year Risk of Diabetes Development in Individuals with Prediabetes.
Observational study in The Permanente journal, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 22 citations in OpenAlex.
- Development of type 2 diabetes mellitus in people with intermediate hyperglycaemia.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2018Pooled it
- Impact of Exercise Manual Program on Biochemical Markers in Sedentary Prediabetic Patients: A Randomized Controlled Trial.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2025Trial
- Baseline Predictors of Glycemic Worsening in Youth and Adults With Impaired Glucose Tolerance or Recently Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes in the Restoring Insulin Secretion (RISE) Study.Diabetes care · 2021Trial
- Real-world predictors of progression to type 2 diabetes among adults with prediabetes.Diabetes, obesity & metabolism · 2026Article
- Risk stratification at prediabetes onset and association with diabetes outcomes using EHR data.npj metabolic health and disease · 2025Article
- Metabolic Scarring: The Persistent Impact of Past Obesity on Long-Term Metabolic Health Despite Weight Loss.Endocrinology, diabetes & metabolism · 2025Article
- Consensus-Driven Development of an Exercise Base Manual Programme for Prediabetic Patients: A Delphi Study.Journal of multidisciplinary healthcare · 2025Article
- Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Sodium-Glucose Co-transporter 2 Inhibitors in Subjects with Prediabetes: A Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial.Diabetes therapy : research, treatment and education of diabetes and related disorders · 2024Article
- Review
- NT-proBNP and cardiovascular event risk in individuals with prediabetes undergoing cardiovascular evaluation.Diabetes research and clinical practice · 2023Article
- The National Clinical Care Commission Report to Congress: Leveraging Federal Policies and Programs to Prevent Diabetes in People With Prediabetes.Diabetes care · 2023Review
- Participants' perspectives on perceived usefulness of digital and in-person diabetes prevention programs: A qualitative study to inform decisions related to program participation.Obesity science & practice · 2022Article
- Jiangtang Tongmai Prescription Reduced Diabetic Lung Injury Through SnoN and TGF-β1/Smads Signaling Pathway.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2022Article
- Evaluating the Implementation of a Digital Diabetes Prevention Program in an Integrated Health Care Delivery System Among Older Adults: Results of a Natural Experiment.Clinical diabetes : a publication of the American Diabetes Association · 2022Article
- Evaluating the Implementation of Digital and In-Person Diabetes Prevention Program in a Large, Integrated Health System: Natural Experiment Study Design.The Permanente journal · 2021Article
- Using Neighborhood-Level Census Data to Predict Diabetes Progression in Patients with Laboratory-Defined Prediabetes.The Permanente journal · 2018Article
- Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Sexual Minority Women (18-59 Years Old): Findings from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2001-2012).Women's health issues : official publication of the Jacobs Institute of Women's HealthArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
contextGiven the dramatic rise in the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in recent decades, identifying individuals at increased risk of T2DM and validating methods to reduce their risk of disease progression is important. With more than one-third of US adults having prediabetes, a more precise stratification of absolute risk of T2DM incidence would help in prioritizing prevention efforts.
objectiveTo develop a simple and clinically useful schema to stratify short-term (2-year) absolute risk of T2DM.
designObservational study of more than 77,000 adult members (age 18-75 years) from 3 Regions of the Kaiser Foundation Health Plan with prediabetes (hemoglobin A
main outcome measuresThe 2-year probability for development of diabetes as a function of baseline HbA
resultsThe 2-year risk of diabetes diagnosis varied widely by HbA
conclusionUsing HbA
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.