ArticleGlobal health, epidemiology and genomics2017
The long road to elimination: malaria mortality in a South African population cohort over 21 years.
Article in Global health, epidemiology and genomics, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Experiences of Community Members and Health Workers Regarding Malaria Control Programmes in the Rural Ingwavuma Community, uMkhanyakude District Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa.Public health challenges · 2025Article
- Perceived Health System Challenges of Implementing Cross-Border Malaria Preventive Measures at Ports of Entry in KwaZulu-Natal.Annals of global health · 2023Article
- Predicting malaria outbreaks from sea surface temperature variability up to 9 months ahead in Limpopo, South Africa, using machine learning.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Malaria predictions based on seasonal climate forecasts in South Africa: A time series distributed lag nonlinear model.Scientific reports · 2019Article
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Authors and funding
12 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundMalaria elimination is on global agendas following successful transmission reductions. Nevertheless moving from low to zero transmission is challenging. South Africa has an elimination target of 2018, which may or may not be realised in its hypoendemic areas.
methodsThe Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System has monitored population health in north-eastern South Africa since 1992. Malaria deaths were analysed against individual factors, socioeconomic status, labour migration and weather over a 21-year period, eliciting trends over time and associations with covariates.
resultsOf 13 251 registered deaths over 1.58 million person-years, 1.2% were attributed to malaria. Malaria mortality rates increased from 1992 to 2013, while mean daily maximum temperature rose by 1.5 °C. Travel to endemic Mozambique became easier, and malaria mortality increased in higher socioeconomic groups. Overall, malaria mortality was significantly associated with age, socioeconomic status, labour migration and employment, yearly rainfall and higher rainfall/temperature shortly before death.
conclusionsMalaria persists as a small but important cause of death in this semi-rural South African population. Detailed longitudinal population data were crucial for these analyses. The findings highlight practical political, socioeconomic and environmental difficulties that may also be encountered elsewhere in moving from low-transmission scenarios to malaria elimination.
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