Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29272474›Full record

ArticleInflammatory bowel diseases2017

Predicting Hospitalization and Outpatient Corticosteroid Use in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients Using Machine Learning.

Akbar K Waljee, Rachel Lipson, Wyndy L Wiitala, Yiwei Zhang, Boang Liu, Ji Zhu, Beth Wallace, Shail M Govani, Ryan W Stidham, Rodney Hayward and 1 more

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Inflammatory bowel diseases, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 65 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
65citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
5.7field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

65 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 112 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  5. Rate of Risk Factors for and Interventions to Reduce Hospital Readmission in Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Diseases.Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association · 2020
    Pooled it
  6. Article
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  8. Article
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  10. Article
  11. Review
  12. Artificial intelligence in inflammatory bowel disease.Saudi journal of gastroenterology : official journal of the Saudi Gastroenterology Association · 2025
    Review
  13. Article
  14. How Artificial Intelligence Will Transform Clinical Care, Research, and Trials for Inflammatory Bowel Disease.Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association · 2025
    Review
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5 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Akbar K WaljeeVA Center for Clinical Management Research, VA Ann Arbor Health Care System, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Rachel LipsonVA Center for Clinical Management Research, VA Ann Arbor Health Care System, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Wyndy L WiitalaVA Center for Clinical Management Research, VA Ann Arbor Health Care System, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Yiwei ZhangDepartment of Statistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Boang LiuDepartment of Statistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Ji ZhuDepartment of Statistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Beth WallaceDivision of Rheumatology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan Health System, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Shail M GovaniDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan Health System, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Ryan W StidhamDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan Health System, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Rodney HaywardVA Center for Clinical Management Research, VA Ann Arbor Health Care System, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Peter D R HigginsDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan Health System, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Michigan Medicine · USUniversity of Michigan–Ann Arbor · USVA Center for Clinical Management Research · US

Funding

Application of Machine Learning Algorithms to Thiopurine Monitoring in IBDR01GM097117 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI HIGGINS, PETER D.R. · 2012 to 2016
$1.9M
Improving Prediction of Medical Responsiveness and Clinical Outcomes in Crohn's DiseaseK23DK101687 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI STIDHAM, RYAN WILLIAM · 2015 to 2019
$945k
NIDDK NIH HHS K23 DK101687
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a chronic disease characterized by unpredictable episodes of flares and periods of remission. Tools that accurately predict disease course would substantially aid therapeutic decision-making. This study aims to construct a model that accurately predicts the combined end point of outpatient corticosteroid use and hospitalizations as a surrogate for IBD flare. Methods: Predictors evaluated included age, sex, race, use of corticosteroid-sparing immunosuppressive medications (immunomodulators and/or anti-TNF), longitudinal laboratory data, and number of previous IBD-related hospitalizations and outpatient corticosteroid prescriptions. We constructed models using logistic regression and machine learning methods (random forest [RF]) to predict the combined end point of hospitalization and/or corticosteroid use for IBD within 6 months. Results: We identified 20,368 Veterans Health Administration patients with the first (index) IBD diagnosis between 2002 and 2009. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AuROC) for the baseline logistic regression model was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.67-0.68). AuROC for the RF longitudinal model was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.84-0.85). AuROC for the RF longitudinal model using previous hospitalization or steroid use was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.87-0.88). The 5 leading independent risk factors for future hospitalization or steroid use were age, mean serum albumin, immunosuppressive medication use, and mean and highest platelet counts. Previous hospitalization and corticosteroid use were highly predictive when included in specified models. Conclusions: A novel machine learning model substantially improved our ability to predict IBD-related hospitalization and outpatient steroid use. This model could be used at point of care to distinguish patients at high and low risk for disease flare, allowing individualized therapeutic management.

Indexed as

Machine LearningAdrenal Cortex HormonesArea Under CurveFemaleHospitalizationHumansImmunosuppressive AgentsInflammatory Bowel DiseasesMaleMiddle AgedOutpatientsRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsAdrenal Cortex HormonesImmunosuppressive Agentscomplicationscorticosteroidsinflammatory bowel disease

Identifiers

PMID29272474
PMCPMC5931801
OpenAlexW2780771183

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.