Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29269395›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2018

Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization.

Peter Turchin, Thomas E Currie, Harvey Whitehouse, Pieter François, Kevin Feeney, Daniel Mullins, Daniel Hoyer, Christina Collins, Stephanie Grohmann, Patrick Savage and 43 more

Open access · bronzeAbstract readHistorical Article
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 43 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
43citing papers in PubMed
65.6field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

43 citing papers in PubMed, 279 citations in OpenAlex.

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  10. Towards understanding human-environment feedback loops: the Atacama Desert case.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2024
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  11. The vulnerability of aging states: A survival analysis across premodern societies.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023
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  12. Playing the political game: the coevolution of institutions with group size and political inequality.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2023
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  13. Modelling the role of environmental circumscription in the evolution of inequality.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2023
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  16. Impact of cultural and genetic structure on food choices along the Silk Road.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022
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  18. Dynamics of ranking.Nature communications · 2022
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  19. Assessing different historical pathways in the cultural evolution of economic development.Evolution and human behavior : official journal of the Human Behavior and Evolution Society · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

53 authors at 20 institutions in 10 countries.

Peter TurchinDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, CT 06269.
Thomas E CurrieHuman Behaviour & Cultural Evolution Group, Department of Biosciences, University of Exeter, Cornwall TR10 9FE, United Kingdom; T.Currie@exeter.ac.uk cspencer@amnh.org.
Harvey WhitehouseInstitute of Cognitive and Evolutionary Anthropology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6PE, United Kingdom.
Pieter FrançoisInstitute of Cognitive and Evolutionary Anthropology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6PE, United Kingdom.
Kevin FeeneySchool of Computer Science and Statistics, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland.
Daniel MullinsInstitute of Cognitive and Evolutionary Anthropology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6PE, United Kingdom.
Daniel HoyerSeshat: Global History Databank, Evolution Institute, San Antonio, FL 33576.
Christina CollinsHuman Behaviour & Cultural Evolution Group, Department of Biosciences, University of Exeter, Cornwall TR10 9FE, United Kingdom.
Stephanie GrohmannInstitute of Cognitive and Evolutionary Anthropology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6PE, United Kingdom.
Patrick SavageInstitute of Cognitive and Evolutionary Anthropology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6PE, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-6996-7496
Gavin Mendel-GleasonSchool of Computer Science and Statistics, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland.
Edward TurnerSeshat: Global History Databank, Evolution Institute, San Antonio, FL 33576.
Agathe DupeyronSeshat: Global History Databank, Evolution Institute, San Antonio, FL 33576.
Enrico CioniSeshat: Global History Databank, Evolution Institute, San Antonio, FL 33576.
Jenny ReddishSeshat: Global History Databank, Evolution Institute, San Antonio, FL 33576.
Jill LevineSeshat: Global History Databank, Evolution Institute, San Antonio, FL 33576.
Greine JordanSeshat: Global History Databank, Evolution Institute, San Antonio, FL 33576.
Eva BrandlSeshat: Global History Databank, Evolution Institute, San Antonio, FL 33576.
Alice WilliamsHuman Behaviour & Cultural Evolution Group, Department of Biosciences, University of Exeter, Cornwall TR10 9FE, United Kingdom.
Rudolf CesarettiSchool of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287.
Marta KruegerInstitute of Archaeology, Adam Mickiewicz University, 61-614 Poznań, Poland.
Alessandro CeccarelliDepartment of Archaeology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3DZ, United Kingdom.
Joe Figliulo-RosswurmDepartment of History, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106.
Po-Ju TuanSeshat: Global History Databank, Evolution Institute, San Antonio, FL 33576.
Peter PeregrineAnthropology and Museum Studies, Lawrence University, Appleton, WI 54911.
Arkadiusz MarciniakInstitute of Archaeology, Adam Mickiewicz University, 61-614 Poznań, Poland.
Johannes Preiser-KapellerDivision for Byzantine Research, Institute for Medieval Research, Austrian Academy of Sciences, 1020 Wien, Austria.
Nikolay KradinDepartment of Anthropology, Institute of History, Archaeology and Ethnology, Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladivostok 690001, Russia.
Andrey KorotayevLaboratory of Monitoring of Destabilization Risks, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow 125267, Russia.
Alessio PalmisanoInstitute of Archaeology, University College London, London WC1H 0PY, United Kingdom.
David BakerBig History Institute, Macquarie University, Sydney NSW 2109, Australia.
Julye BidmeadDepartment of Religious Studies, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866.
Peter BolEast Asian Languages and Civilizations, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138.
David ChristianBig History Institute, Macquarie University, Sydney NSW 2109, Australia.
Connie CookDepartment of Modern Languages & Literatures, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA 18015.
Alan CoveyDepartment of Anthropology, University of Texas Austin, Austin, TX 78712.
Gary FeinmanIntegrative Research Center, Field Museum of Natural History, Chicago, IL 60605.
Árni Daníel JúlíussonHistory, University of Iceland, IS-108 Reykjavik, Iceland.
Axel KristinssonHistory, Reykjavik Academy, IS-108 Reykjavik, Iceland.
John MiksicDepartment of Southeast Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, Singapore 119260.
Ruth MosternDepartment of History, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15260.
Cameron PetrieDepartment of Archaeology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3DZ, United Kingdom.
Peter Rudiak-GouldIndependent Scholar, Toronto, ON M6P 1T6, Canada.
Barend Ter HaarFaculty of Oriental Studies, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6LU, United Kingdom.
Vesna WallaceDepartment of Religious Studies, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866.
Victor MairDepartment of East Asian Languages and Civilizations, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104.
Liye XieDepartment of Anthropology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 2S2, Canada.
John BainesFaculty of Oriental Studies, Oriental Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 2LE, United Kingdom.
Elizabeth BridgesInstitute of Archaeology and Anthropology, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208.
Joseph ManningDepartment of History, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520.
Bruce LockhartDepartment of History, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117570.
Amy BogaardInstitute of Archaeology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 2PG, United Kingdom.
Charles SpencerDivision of Anthropology, American Museum of Natural History, New York, NY 10024 T.Currie@exeter.ac.uk cspencer@amnh.org.
The Evolution Institute · USUniversity of Oxford · GBUniversity of Exeter · GBAdam Mickiewicz University in Poznań · PLChapman University · USMacquarie University · AUNational University of Singapore · SGTrinity College Dublin · IEUniversity of Cambridge · GBAmerican Museum of Natural History · USArizona State University · USAustrian Academy of Sciences · ATField Museum of Natural History · USHarvard University Press · USInstitute of History, Archaeology and Ethnography of the Peoples of Far-East · RULehigh University · USNational Research University Higher School of Economics · RUSanta Fe Institute · USThe University of Texas at Austin · USUniversity College London · GB

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Do human societies from around the world exhibit similarities in the way that they are structured, and show commonalities in the ways that they have evolved? These are long-standing questions that have proven difficult to answer. To test between competing hypotheses, we constructed a massive repository of historical and archaeological information known as "Seshat: Global History Databank." We systematically coded data on 414 societies from 30 regions around the world spanning the last 10,000 years. We were able to capture information on 51 variables reflecting nine characteristics of human societies, such as social scale, economy, features of governance, and information systems. Our analyses revealed that these different characteristics show strong relationships with each other and that a single principal component captures around three-quarters of the observed variation. Furthermore, we found that different characteristics of social complexity are highly predictable across different world regions. These results suggest that key aspects of social organization are functionally related and do indeed coevolve in predictable ways. Our findings highlight the power of the sciences and humanities working together to rigorously test hypotheses about general rules that may have shaped human history.

Indexed as

Biological EvolutionCultural DiversityCultural EvolutionAlgorithmsArchaeologyGeographyHistory, AncientHumansModels, TheoreticalSocial ChangeTime Factorscomparative archaeologycomparative historycultural evolutionquantitative historysociopolitical complexity

Identifiers

PMID29269395
PMCPMC5777031
OpenAlexW2776803487

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.