ArticleGastroenterology2018
Determining Risk of Barrett's Esophagus and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Based on Epidemiologic Factors and Genetic Variants.
Article in Gastroenterology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 48 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
48 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Diagnostic Risk Prediction Models for Upper Gastrointestinal Cancers: A Systematic Review.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2025Pooled it
- Risk Factors for the Development of Barrett's Esophagus and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Cancer reports (Hoboken, N.J.) · 2025Pooled it
- Prediction of esophageal cancer risk based on genetic variants and environmental risk factors in Chinese population.BMC cancer · 2024Pooled it
- Risk prediction models for esophageal cancer: A systematic review and critical appraisal.Cancer medicine · 2021Pooled it
- Risk Prediction Model for Esophageal Cancer Among General Population: A Systematic Review.Frontiers in public health · 2021Pooled it
- Sex-Specific Genetic Associations for Barrett's Esophagus and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma.Gastroenterology · 2020Pooled it
- Esophageal cancer: from pathogenesis to precision therapies.Signal transduction and targeted therapy · 2026Review
- A Practical Guide to Incorporating Novel Barrett's Screening/Surveillance Tools into Clinical Practice.Current gastroenterology reports · 2026Review
- Role of Endoscopy in the Diagnosis and Management of Esophageal Cancer.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Review
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- Mendelian randomization analysis of atopic dermatitis and esophageal cancer in East Asian and European populations.The World Allergy Organization journal · 2024Article
- Esophageal Cancer with Early Onset in a Patient with Cri du Chat Syndrome.Diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Evolution of Treatment Outcomes and Prognostic Factors in Esophageal Cancer Surgery: A Retrospective Analysis of 1500 Consecutive Esophagostomies.Annals of surgery open : perspectives of surgical history, education, and clinical approaches · 2023Article
- Integration of IDPC Clustering Analysis and Interpretable Machine Learning for Survival Risk Prediction of Patients with ESCC.Interdisciplinary sciences, computational life sciences · 2023Article
- Development and validation of a novel risk prediction algorithm to estimate 10-year risk of oesophageal cancer in primary care: prospective cohort study and evaluation of performance against two other risk prediction models.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2023Article
- Sleep Behaviors, Genetic Predispositions, and Risk of Esophageal Cancer.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2023Article
- Prognosis prediction in esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma: a competing risk analysis.BMC gastroenterology · 2023Article
- P53 Deficiency Accelerates Esophageal Epithelium Intestinal Metaplasia Malignancy.Biomedicines · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
28 authors.
Funding
Abstract
BACKGROUND &
aimsWe developed comprehensive models to determine risk of Barrett's esophagus (BE) or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) based on genetic and non-genetic factors.
methodsWe used pooled data from 3288 patients with BE, 2511 patients with EAC, and 2177 individuals without either (controls) from participants in the international Barrett's and EAC consortium as well as the United Kingdom's BE gene study and stomach and esophageal cancer study. We collected data on 23 genetic variants associated with risk for BE or EAC, and constructed a polygenic risk score (PRS) for cases and controls by summing the risk allele counts for the variants weighted by their natural log-transformed effect estimates (odds ratios) extracted from genome-wide association studies. We also collected data on demographic and lifestyle factors (age, sex, smoking, body mass index, use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) and symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). Risk models with various combinations of non-genetic factors and the PRS were compared for their accuracy in identifying patients with BE or EAC using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis.
resultsIndividuals in the highest quartile of risk, based on genetic factors (PRS), had a 2-fold higher risk of BE (odds ratio, 2.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.89-2.60) or EAC (odds ratio, 2.46; 95% confidence interval, 2.07-2.92) than individual in the lowest quartile of risk based on PRS. Risk models developed based on only demographic or lifestyle factors or GERD symptoms identified patients with BE or EAC with AUC values ranging from 0.637 to 0.667. Combining data on demographic or lifestyle factors with data on GERD symptoms identified patients with BE with an AUC of 0.793 and patients with EAC with an AUC of 0.745. Including PRSs with these data only minimally increased the AUC values for BE (to 0.799) and EAC (to 0.754). Including the PRSs in the model developed based on non-genetic factors resulted in a net reclassification improvement for BE of 3.0% and for EAC of 5.6%.
conclusionsWe used data from 3 large databases of patients from studies of BE or EAC to develop a risk prediction model based on genetic, clinical, and demographic/lifestyle factors. We identified a PRS that increases discrimination and net reclassification of individuals with vs without BE and EAC. However, the absolute magnitude of improvement is not sufficient to justify its clinical use.
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