ArticleBMC health services research2017
Construction of a simulation model and evaluation of the effect of potential interventions on the incidence of diabetes and initiation of dialysis due to diabetic nephropathy in Japan.
Article in BMC health services research, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 18 citations in OpenAlex.
- System dynamics modelling methods for public health policy evaluation: a systematic literature review focussing on mental health and substance use disorders.BMC public health · 2026Pooled it
- Applications of System Dynamics Models in Chronic Disease Prevention: A Systematic Review.Preventing chronic disease · 2021Pooled it
- A System Dynamics Simulation Applied to Healthcare: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Pooled it
- Projections of diabetes mellitus in Japan through 2040: a bayesian age-period-cohort analysis of the national health and nutrition survey population.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026Article
- Impact of Salt Reduction on Medical Expenditure for Hypertension in Japan: National and Subnational Simulation Models.Nutrients · 2026Article
- Article
- System Dynamic Model Simulates the Growth Trend of Diabetes Mellitus in Chinese Population: Implications for Future Urban Public Health Governance.International journal of public health · 2022Article
- The effects of alprostadil combined with α-lipoic acid in the treatment of senile diabetic nephropathy.American journal of translational research · 2021Article
- Review
- A systematic literature review of simulation models for non-technical skill training in healthcare logistics.Advances in simulation (London, England) · 2018Article
- Aging, physical activity, and diabetic complications related to loss of muscle strength in patients with type 2 diabetes.Physical therapy research · 2018Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe prevalence of diabetes mellitus is a growing public health concern in Japan. We developed a simulation model to predict the number of people with diabetes and those on dialysis due to diabetic nephropathy. In addition, we used the model to simulate the impact of possible interventions on the number of people with diabetes and those on dialysis due to diabetic nephropathy in the near future.
methodsA simulation model with aging chains for diabetes management was built using system dynamics. The model was calibrated to population data from 2000 to 2015 (sex- and age category-specific population, the prevalence of diabetes, and the number of patients on dialysis due to diabetic nephropathy). We extrapolated the model up to 2035 in order to predict future prevalence of diabetes and related dialysis (base run). We also ran the model, hypothesizing that incidence of diabetes and/or related dialysis would be reduced by half from 2015 to 2025 and that this rate would be maintained until 2035, in order to investigate the effects of hypothetical interventions on future prevalence.
resultsThe developed model forecasted the population with diabetes to increase until 2028 (5.58 million males and 3.34 million females), and the population on dialysis due to diabetic nephropathy to increase until 2035 (113,000 males and 48,000 females). Simulation experiments suggested that diabetes prevention interventions would decrease the number of patients on dialysis in 2035 by 13.8% in males and 12.6% in females compared to the base run. In contrast, interventions aiming to avoid dialysis initiation for patients with diabetes would decrease the number of patients on dialysis by 37.8% in males and 38.1% in females.
conclusionsWe successfully developed a simulation model to project the number of patients with diabetes and those on dialysis due to diabetic nephropathy. Simulation experiments using the model suggested that, as far as the perspective of the next 20 years, intervention to prevent dialysis is an important means of bending the increasing curve of dialysis in the population with diabetes. Simulation analysis may be useful when making and evaluating health policies related to diabetes and other chronic diseases.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.