ArticleScience translational medicine2017
Effect of population viral load on prospective HIV incidence in a hyperendemic rural African community.
Article in Science translational medicine, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 61 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
61 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 95 citations in OpenAlex.
- Risk scores for predicting HIV incidence among adult heterosexual populations in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2022Pooled it
- Community- and individual-level correlates of HIV incidence in HPTN 071 (PopART).Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2023Trial
- Effect of Universal Testing and Treatment on HIV Incidence - HPTN 071 (PopART).The New England journal of medicine · 2019Trial
- A method for statistical analysis of repeated residential movements to link human mobility and HIV acquisition.PloS one · 2019Trial
- Contextual Drivers of HIV Vulnerability and Retention in Care in the Central African Republic: An Ecological Analysis.AIDS and behavior · 2026Article
- An HIV-1 Risk Assessment Tool for Men Aged 15-59 years in 13 African Countries: A Pooled Analysis of Nationally Representative Surveys.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2026Article
- Estimates and predictors of HIV viral non-suppression in South African adults on antiretroviral treatment.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2026Article
- Trends in population HIV viral suppression: a longitudinal analysis.AIDS (London, England) · 2025Article
- Age and gender profiles of HIV infection burden and viraemia: novel metrics for HIV epidemic control in African populations with high antiretroviral therapy coverage.International journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Association between population viral load surrogate indicator and HIV transmission potential: a prospective cohort study in Xinjiang, China.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Viral suppression in adults on efavirenz- or dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy in Mopani District, South Africa.Southern African journal of HIV medicine · 2025Article
- Viral load dynamics among adults receiving HIV care in rural North-Eastern South Africa, 2015-2020: insights from a population-based record linkage study.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Commentary on Quigley et al.Physiotherapy Canada. Physiotherapie Canada · 2024Article
- Moving beyond hotspots of HIV prevalence to geospatial hotspots of UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets in sub-Saharan Africa.The lancet. HIV · 2024Review
- Convergence of HIV and non-communicable disease epidemics: geospatial mapping of the unmet health needs in an HIV hyperendemic community in South Africa.BMJ global health · 2024Article
- Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda.Nature microbiology · 2024Article
- Geospatial and temporal mapping of detectable HIV-1 viral loads amid dolutegravir rollout in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- High Genetic Diversity of HIV-1 and Active Transmission Clusters among Male-to-Male Sexual Contacts (MMSCs) in Zhuhai, China.Viruses · 2023Article
- Integration of a geospatially targeted community-based testing approach with respondent-driven sampling to identify people who inject drugs living with HIV and HCV in Patti and Gorakhpur, India.Drug and alcohol dependence · 2023Article
- Convergence of HIV and non-communicable disease epidemics: Geospatial mapping of the unmet health needs in a HIV Hyperendemic South African community.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
1 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Monitoring HIV population viral load (PVL) has been advocated as an important means of inferring HIV transmission potential and predicting the future rate of new HIV infections (HIV incidence) in a particular community. However, the relationship between PVL measures and directly measured HIV incidence has not been quantified in any setting and, most importantly, in a hyperendemic sub-Saharan African setting. We assessed this relationship using one of Africa's largest population-based prospective population cohorts in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa in which we followed 8732 HIV-uninfected participants between 2011 and 2015. Despite clear evidence of spatial clustering of high viral loads in some communities, our results demonstrate that PVL metrics derived from aggregation of viral load data only from the HIV-positive members of a particular community did not predict HIV incidence in this typical hyperendemic, rural African population. Only once we used modified PVL measures, which combined viral load information with the underlying spatial variation in the proportion of the population infected (HIV prevalence), did we find a consistently strong relationship with future risk of HIV acquisition. For example, every 1% increase in the overall proportion of a population having detectable virus (PDV
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.