ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2018
Genotype-Specific Measles Transmissibility: A Branching Process Analysis.
Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed.
- Measles challenges: global resurgence and factors affecting eradication.Italian journal of pediatrics · 2026Review
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- Age-specific measles immunity among health care personnel during an epidemic (2018) in Slovakia: Comparison with national immunological survey data.Preventive medicine reports · 2026Article
- A commentary on measles vaccine in the context of outbreaks: Viral evolution, waning immunity and public trust.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2025Review
- What's going on with measles?Journal of virology · 2024Review
- Unwelcome return: analyzing the recent rise of measles cases in the United States.Proceedings (Baylor University. Medical Center) · 2024Review
- An open-access database of infectious disease transmission trees to explore superspreader epidemiology.PLoS biology · 2022Article
- SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Prevention in the Era of the Delta Variant.Infectious disease clinics of North America · 2022Review
- Dynamical Modeling as a Tool for Inferring Causation.American journal of epidemiology · 2022Article
- Article
- Measles transmission during a large outbreak in California.Epidemics · 2020Article
- Article
- Measles vaccine immune escape: Should we be concerned?European journal of epidemiology · 2019Article
- Measles, the need for a paradigm shift.European journal of epidemiology · 2019Review
- Measles outbreak in Gothenburg urban area, Sweden, 2017 to 2018: low viral load in breakthrough infections.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2019Article
- Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Background: Substantial heterogeneity in measles outbreak sizes may be due to genotype-specific transmissibility. Using a branching process analysis, we characterize differences in measles transmission by estimating the association between genotype and the reproduction number R among postelimination California measles cases during 2000-2015 (400 cases, 165 outbreaks). Methods: Assuming a negative binomial secondary case distribution, we fit a branching process model to the distribution of outbreak sizes using maximum likelihood and estimated the reproduction number R for a multigenotype model. Results: Genotype B3 is found to be significantly more transmissible than other genotypes (P = .01) with an R of 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI], .48-.71), while the R for all other genotypes combined is 0.43 (95% CI, .28-.54). This result is robust to excluding the 2014-2015 outbreak linked to Disneyland theme parks (referred to as "outbreak A" for conciseness and clarity) (P = .04) and modeling genotype as a random effect (P = .004 including outbreak A and P = .02 excluding outbreak A). This result was not accounted for by season of introduction, age of index case, or vaccination of the index case. The R for outbreaks with a school-aged index case is 0.69 (95% CI, .52-.78), while the R for outbreaks with a non-school-aged index case is 0.28 (95% CI, .19-.35), but this cannot account for differences between genotypes. Conclusions: Variability in measles transmissibility may have important implications for measles control; the vaccination threshold required for elimination may not be the same for all genotypes or age groups.
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