ArticleOpen forum infectious diseases2017
Mathematical Modeling of "Chronic" Infectious Diseases: Unpacking the Black Box.
Article in Open forum infectious diseases, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Calibration of individual-based models to epidemiological data: A systematic review.PLoS computational biology · 2020Pooled it
- Projected Aging Among People With HIV in the US.JAMA network open · 2026Article
- The Potential Effect of Ending Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Funding for HIV Tests: A Modeling Study in 18 States.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026Article
- The Potential Effect of Ending CDC Funding for HIV Tests: A Modeling Study in 18 States.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Clinical management and burden of cytomegalovirus in D+/R-Kidney transplant recipients in Canada.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Article
- Complex networks interactions between bioactive compounds and adipose tissue vis-à-vis insulin resistance.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2025Article
- Variance-based sensitivity analysis of tuberculosis transmission models.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Potential Effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Transmission: A Modeling Study in 32 US Cities.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2022Article
- Article
- Global research activity on mathematical modeling of transmission and control of 23 selected infectious disease outbreak.Globalization and health · 2022Article
- What Will It Take to End HIV in the United States? : A Comprehensive, Local-Level Modeling Study.Annals of internal medicine · 2021Article
- The predicted impact of tuberculosis preventive therapy: the importance of disease progression assumptions.BMC infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Projecting the impact of variable MDR-TB transmission efficiency on long-term epidemic trends in South Africa and Vietnam.Scientific reports · 2019Article
- Investigation of house dust mite induced allergy using logistic regression in West Bengal, India.The World Allergy Organization journal · 2019Article
- Improving the quality of modelling evidence used for tuberculosis policy evaluation.The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issuedErratum.2018
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundMathematical models are increasingly used to understand the dynamics of infectious diseases, including "chronic" infections with long generation times. Such models include features that are obscure to most clinicians and decision-makers.
methodsUsing a model of a hypothetical active case-finding intervention for tuberculosis in India as an example, we illustrate the effects on model results of different choices for model structure, input parameters, and calibration process.
resultsUsing the same underlying data, different transmission models produced different estimates of the projected intervention impact on tuberculosis incidence by 2030 with different corresponding uncertainty ranges. We illustrate the reasons for these differences and present a simple guide for clinicians and decision-makers to evaluate models of infectious diseases.
conclusionsMathematical models of chronic infectious diseases must be understood to properly inform policy decisions. Improved communication between modelers and consumers is critical if model results are to improve the health of populations.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.