Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29222509›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2017

Impact of model calibration on cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer prevention.

David Moriña, Silvia de Sanjosé, Mireia Diaz

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. A Scoping Review on Calibration Methods for Cancer Simulation Models.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

David MoriñaUnit of Infections and Cancer - Information and Interventions (UNIC - I&I), Cancer Epidemiology Research Program (CERP), Catalan Institute of Oncology (ICO)-IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain. dmorina@iconcologia.net.
Silvia de SanjoséCancer Epidemiology Research Program (CERP), Catalan Institute of Oncology (ICO)-IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain.
Mireia DiazUnit of Infections and Cancer - Information and Interventions (UNIC - I&I), Cancer Epidemiology Research Program (CERP), Catalan Institute of Oncology (ICO)-IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain. mireia@iconcologia.net.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Markov chain models are commonly used to simulate the natural history of human papillomavirus infection and subsequent cervical lesions with the aim of predicting future benefits of health interventions. Developing and calibrating these models entails making a number of critical decisions that will influence the ability of the model to reflect real conditions and predict future situations. Accuracy of selected inputs and calibration procedures are two of the crucial aspects for model performance and understanding their influence is essential, especially when involves policy decisions. The aim of this work is to assess the health and economic impact on cervical cancer prevention strategies currently under discussion according to the most common methods of model calibration combined with different accuracy degree of initial inputs. Model results show large differences on the goodness of fit and cost-effectiveness outcomes depending on the calibration approach used, and these variations may affect health policy decisions. Our findings strengthen the importance of obtaining good calibrated probability matrices to get reliable health and cost outcomes, and are directly generalizable to any cost-effectiveness analysis based on Markov chain models.

Indexed as

Cost-Benefit AnalysisMarkov ChainsCalibrationFemaleHumansLife ExpectancyQuality-Adjusted Life YearsUterine Cervical Neoplasms

Identifiers

PMID29222509
PMCPMC5722890

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.