ArticleJournal of pain and symptom management2018
A Comparison of the Accuracy of Clinician Prediction of Survival Versus the Palliative Prognostic Index.
Article in Journal of pain and symptom management, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Prognostic evaluation in patients with advanced cancer in the last months of life: ESMO Clinical Practice Guideline.ESMO open · 2023Guideline
- When would I be surprised? Variability in predicted probability of survival for being "surprised" and "not surprised" to the surprise question.Supportive care in cancer : official journal of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer · 2025Article
- A novel prognostic model to predict prognosis of patients with osteosarcoma based on clinical characteristics and blood biomarkers.Journal of Cancer · 2025Article
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- 'How long do you think?' Unresponsive dying patients in a specialist palliative care service: A consecutive cohort study.Palliative medicine · 2024Article
- Working after cancer: psychological flexibility and the quality of working life.Journal of cancer survivorship : research and practice · 2024Article
- Clinicians' Prediction of Survival Is Most Useful for Palliative Care Referral.Palliative medicine reports · 2024Article
- Outcomes of prognostication in people living with advanced cancer: A qualitative study to inform a Core Outcome Set.PloS one · 2024Article
- Learning Individual Survival Models from PanCancer Whole Transcriptome Data.Clinical cancer research : an official journal of the American Association for Cancer Research · 2023Article
- Applying Machine Learning in Distributed Data Networks for Pharmacoepidemiologic and Pharmacovigilance Studies: Opportunities, Challenges, and Considerations.Drug safety · 2022Review
- Observational
- Article
- Prognostic models of survival in patients with advanced incurable cancer: the PiPS2 observational study.Health technology assessment (Winchester, England) · 2021Observational
- The Importance of Prognostication: Impact of Prognostic Predictions, Disclosures, Awareness, and Acceptance on Patient Outcomes.Current treatment options in oncology · 2021Review
- Article
- Prognosticating for Adult Patients With Advanced Incurable Cancer: a Needed Oncologist Skill.Current treatment options in oncology · 2020Review
- The prognostic value of integration of pretreatment serum amyloid A (SAA)-EBV DNA (S-D) grade in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma.Clinical and translational medicine · 2020Article
- Dealing with prognostic uncertainty: the role of prognostic models and websites for patients with advanced cancer.Current opinion in supportive and palliative care · 2019Review
- External validation of N2H3 nomogram to predict outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke treated by intravenous thrombolysis.Brain circulationArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
contextSurvival predictions for advanced cancer patients impact many aspects of care, but the accuracy of clinician prediction of survival (CPS) is low. Prognostic tools such as the Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) have been proposed to improve accuracy of predictions. However, it is not known if PPI is better than CPS at discriminating survival.
objectiveWe compared the prognostic accuracy of CPS to PPI in patients with advanced cancer.
methodsThis was a prospective study in which palliative care physicians at our tertiary care cancer center documented both the PPI and CPS in hospitalized patients with advanced cancer. We compared the discrimination of CPS and PPI using concordance statistics, area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC), net reclassification index, and integrated discrimination improvement for 30-day survival and 100-day survival.
resultsTwo hundred fifteen patients were enrolled with a median survival of 109 days and a median follow-up of 239 days. The AUC for 30-day survival was 0.76 (95% CI 0.66-0.85) for PPI and 0.58 (95% CI 0.47-0.68) for CPS (P < 0.0001). Using the net reclassification index, 67% of patients were correctly reclassified using PPI instead of CPS for 30-day survival (P = 0.0005). CPS and PPI had similar accuracy for 100-day survival (AUC 0.62 vs. 0.64; P = 0.58).
conclusionWe found that PPI was more accurate than CPS when used to discriminate survival at 30 days, but not at 100 days. This study highlights the reason and timing for using PPI to facilitate survival predictions.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.