ArticleFrontiers in public health2017
Dynamic Regimes of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Influenza Pandemic Timing.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- SEASONAL VARIATION OF ACUTE STROKE IN A TROPICAL AFRICAN LOCALITY: A RETROSPECTIVE STUDY FROM SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA.Annals of Ibadan postgraduate medicine · 2025Article
- Viral respiratory infections in a rapidly changing climate: the need to prepare for the next pandemic.EBioMedicine · 2023Review
- Fuzzy Synchronization of Chaotic Systems with Hidden Attractors.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- The relationship between cyclonic weather regimes and seasonal influenza over the Eastern Mediterranean.The Science of the total environment · 2021Article
- Improving Entropy Estimates of Complex Network Topology for the Characterization of Coupling in Dynamical Systems.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2018Article
- Dynamic Regimes of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Influenza Pandemic Timing.Frontiers in public health · 2017Article
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Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
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Abstract
El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) dynamics has been shown to drive seasonal influenza dynamics. Severe seasonal influenza epidemics and the 2009-2010 pandemic were coincident with chaotic regime of ENSO dynamics. ENSO dynamics from 1876 to 2016 were characterized to determine if influenza pandemics are coupled to chaotic regimes. Time-varying spectra of southern oscillation index (SOI) and sea surface temperature (SST) were compared. SOI and SST were decomposed to components using the algorithm of noise-assisted multivariate empirical mode decomposition. The components were Hilbert transformed to generate instantaneous amplitudes and phases. The trajectories and attractors of components were characterized in polar coordinates and state space. Influenza pandemics were mapped to dynamic regimes of SOI and SST joint recurrence of annual components. State space geometry of El Niños lagged by influenza pandemics were characterized and compared with other El Niños. Timescales of SOI and SST components ranged from sub-annual to multidecadal. The trajectories of SOI and SST components and the joint recurrence of annual components were dissipative toward chaotic attractors. Periodic, quasi-periodic, and chaotic regimes were present in the recurrence of trajectories, but chaos-chaos transitions dominated. Influenza pandemics occurred during chaotic regimes of significantly low transitivity dimension (
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