ArticleBMC infectious diseases2017
A clinical tool to predict Plasmodium vivax recurrence in Malaysia.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 6 citations in OpenAlex.
- Malaria distribution and performance of malaria diagnostic methods in Malaysia (1980-2019): a systematic review.Malaria journal · 2020Pooled it
- Effects of MAO-A and CYP450 on primaquine metabolism in healthy volunteers.Parasitology research · 2019Trial
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundRecurrence rates of Plasmodium vivax infections differ across various geographic regions. Interestingly, South-East Asia and the Asia-Pacific region are documented to exhibit the most frequent recurrence incidences. Identifying patients at a higher risk for recurrences gives valuable information in strengthening the efforts to control P. vivax infections. The aim of the study was to develop a tool to identify P. vivax- infected patients that are at a higher risk of recurrence in Malaysia.
methodsPatient data was obtained retrospectively through the Ministry of Health, Malaysia, from 2011 to 2016. Patients with incomplete data were excluded. A total of 2044 clinical P. vivax malaria cases treated with primaquine were included. Data collected were patient, disease, and treatment characteristics. Two-thirds of the cases (n = 1362) were used to develop a clinical risk score, while the remaining third (n = 682) was used for validation.
resultsUsing multivariate analysis, age (p = 0.03), gametocyte sexual count (p = 0.04), indigenous transmission (p = 0.04), type of treatment (p = 0.12), and incomplete primaquine treatment (p = 0.14) were found to be predictors of recurrence after controlling for other confounding factors; these predictors were then used in developing the final model. The beta-coefficient values were used to develop a clinical scoring tool to predict possible recurrence. The total scores ranged between 0 and 8. A higher score indicated a higher risk for recurrence (odds ratio [OR]: 1.971; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.562-2.487; p ≤ 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the developed (n = 1362) and validated model (n = 682) was of good accuracy (ROC: 0.728, 95% CI: 0.670-0.785, p value < 0.001, and ROC: 0.766, 95% CI: 0.700-0.833, p-value < 0.001, respectively). In both the developed and validated models, area under the ROC curves showed no significant difference in predicting recurrence based on the constructed scoring mechanism (p = 0.399; Z-value: -0.8441; standard error: 0.045).
conclusionsThe developed model to predict recurrence was found to be of good accuracy and could be a useful tool in targeting patients at a higher risk for recurrence for closer monitoring during follow-up, after treatment with primaquine.
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