Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29211782›Full record

ArticlePloS one2017

Generative mathematical modelling to demonstrate virtual simulations of neovascular age related macular degeneration.

David Hoyle, Tariq Mehmood Aslam

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
0.2field-weighted citation impact, top 38% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed, 5 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

David HoyleIndependent Researcher, Manchester, United Kingdom.
Tariq Mehmood AslamSchool of Pharmacy and Optometry, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9739-7280
Manchester Royal Eye Hospital · GB

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeTo develop a generative mathematical model of wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and model the impact of injections of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor to virtual patients with the condition.

methodsWe isolated key pathophysiological components of macular degeneration in terms of macular edema development and response to anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) agents. We developed mathematical models for each of these components using constants determined from published biological experimentation. Consequently, we combined the mathematical models of the separate components to arrive at an end-to-end model of the evolution of macular edema size and its response to treatment.

resultsWe present a series of simulations based upon our idealised model. Initially, we demonstrate the theoretical change in macular edema height in wet macular degeneration over time without and with anti-VEGF interventions. In our final simulation, we demonstrate the powerful possibilities of virtual clinical trials by simulating a virtual model of a landmark study using our existing mathematical AMD model.

conclusionsUsing our mathematical modelling based upon known pathological and pharmacological processes we have been able to model the effect of intravitreal injection of an anti-VEGF agent on macular edema from age related macular degeneration. We were subsequently able to mathematically simulate a major clinical trial with results that mirror many key features of the clinical established study. We anticipate that the generative model presented here can evolve to be a useful supportive tool in the challenge to deliver optimal therapy for patients with wet macular degeneration.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalAngiogenesis InhibitorsHumansIntravitreal InjectionsMacular EdemaWet Macular DegenerationAngiogenesis Inhibitors

Identifiers

PMID29211782
PMCPMC5718607
OpenAlexW2775471430

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.