ArticleEnvironment international2018
Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention.
Article in Environment international, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Systematic review of the impact of heatwaves on health service demand in Australia.BMC health services research · 2022Pooled it
- Impact of Short-Term Exposure to Extreme Temperatures on Mortality: A Multi-City Study in Belgium.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Pooled it
- Mitigation potential of urban greening during heatwaves and stormwater events: a modeling study for Karlsruhe, Germany.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Drivers of associations between daytime-nighttime compound temperature extremes and mortality in China.Communications medicine · 2024Article
- Climate Change, Summer Temperature, and Heat-Related Mortality in Finland: Multicohort Study with Projections for a Sustainable vs. Fossil-Fueled Future to 2050.Environmental health perspectives · 2023Observational
- Achievements and gaps in projection studies on the temperature-attributable health burden: Where should we be headed?Frontiers in epidemiology · 2022Article
- Spatial Variability of Heat-Related Mortality in Barcelona from 1992-2015: A Case Crossover Study Design.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Public perceptions of the health risks of extreme heat across US states, counties, and neighborhoods.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2019Article
- Differences in the impact of heat waves according to urban and peri-urban factors in Madrid.International journal of biometeorology · 2019Article
- Impact of climate change on adipose-derived stem cells: A molecular and histological study.The journal of climate change and healthArticle
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12 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundExcessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in several European cities. Heat-related mortality and morbidity is likely to increase under climate change scenarios without adequate prevention based on locally relevant evidence.
methodsWe modelled the urban climate of Antwerp for the summer season during the period 1986-2015, and projected summer daily temperatures for two periods, one in the near (2026-2045) and one in the far future (2081-2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the relationship between temperature and mortality, as well as with hospital admissions for the period 2009-2013, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatization and acclimatization based on a constant threshold percentile temperature.
resultsDuring the sample period 2009-2013 we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 26°C, or the 89th percentile of the maximum daily temperature series. The annual average heat-related mortality in this period was 13.4 persons (95% CI: 3.8-23.4). No effect of heat was observed in the case of hospital admissions due to cardiorespiratory causes. Under a no acclimatization scenario, annual average heat-related mortality is multiplied by a factor of 1.7 in the near future (24.1deaths/year CI 95%: 6.78-41.94) and by a factor of 4.5 in the far future (60.38deaths/year CI 95%: 17.00-105.11). Under a heat acclimatization scenario, mortality does not increase significantly in the near or in the far future.
conclusionThese results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate, and the calibration of existing prevention activities in light of locally relevant evidence.
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