Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29206909›Full record

ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2018

Seasonal Incidence of Symptomatic Influenza in the United States.

Jerome I Tokars, Sonja J Olsen, Carrie Reed

3 registry-linked trialsAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 3 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 148 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
148citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT04323137 nacompletednot on this mapstarted 2020, after this paper: background citation

Encouraging Flu Vaccination Among High-Risk Patients Identified by a Machine-Learning Model of Flu Complication Risk

TypeinterventionalSponsorGeisinger ClinicRan2020 to 2021Enrolled117,649ConditionsInfluenza, Vaccination, Health Promotion, Health BehaviorArmsRisk reduction, Medical records-based recommendation, Algorithm-based recommendation
NCT06207929 completednot on this mapstarted 2024, after this paper: background citation

Wearable Assisted Viral Evidence (WAVE) Study A Decentralized, Prospective Study Exploring the Relationship Between Passively-collected Data From Wearable Activity Devices and Respiratory Viral Infections

TypeobservationalSponsorEvidation HealthRan2024 to 2024Enrolled18,157ConditionsInfluenza, Human, COVID-19, Influenza A, Influenza B
NCT06229444 nacompletednot on this mapstarted 2024, after this paper: background citation

Predict + Protect: A Randomized Controlled Trial Exploring the Effectiveness of a Predictive Health Education Intervention on the Adoption of Protective Behaviors Related to Influenza-like Illness (ILI)

TypeinterventionalSponsorEvidation HealthRan2024 to 2024Enrolled17,043ConditionsInfluenza, Influenza A, Influenza B, COVID-19ArmsILI Predictive Alerts, Reactive Content, and Proactive Content, ILI Predictive Alerts, Reactive Content, Proactive Content, No Intervention
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

148 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. Spotlight influenza: Laboratory-confirmed seasonal influenza in people with acute respiratory illness: a literature review and meta-analysis, WHO European Region, 2004 to 2017.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2021
    Pooled it
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88 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Jerome I TokarsInfluenza Division, National Centers for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Sonja J OlsenInfluenza Division, National Centers for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Carrie ReedInfluenza Division, National Centers for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.

Funding

Intramural CDC HHS CC999999
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: The seasonal incidence of influenza is often approximated as 5%-20%. Methods: We used 2 methods to estimate the seasonal incidence of symptomatic influenza in the United States. First, we made a statistical estimate extrapolated from influenza-associated hospitalization rates for 2010-2011 to 2015-2016, collected as part of national surveillance, covering approximately 9% of the United States, and including the existing mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons. Second, we performed a literature search and meta-analysis of published manuscripts that followed cohorts of subjects during 1996-2016 to detect laboratory-confirmed symptomatic influenza among unvaccinated persons; we adjusted this result to the US median vaccination coverage and effectiveness during 2010-2016. Results: The statistical estimate of influenza incidence among all ages ranged from 3.0%-11.3% among seasons, with median values of 8.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.3%-9.7%) for all ages, 9.3% (95% CI, 8.2%-11.1%) for children <18 years, and 8.9% (95% CI, 8.2%-9.9%) for adults 18-64 years. Corresponding values for the meta-analysis were 7.1% (95% CI, 6.1%-8.1%) for all ages, 8.7% (95% CI, 6.6%-10.5%) for children, and 5.1% (95% CI, 3.6%-6.6%) for adults. Conclusions: The 2 approaches produced comparable results for children and persons of all ages. The statistical estimates are more versatile and permit estimation of season-to-season variation. During 2010-2016, the incidence of symptomatic influenza among vaccinated and unvaccinated US residents, including both medically attended and nonattended infections, was approximately 8% and varied from 3% to 11% among seasons.

Indexed as

IncidenceSeasonsAdolescentAdultAgedCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S.ChildChild, PreschoolFemaleHumansInfantInfluenza, HumanMaleMiddle AgedUnited StatesYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID29206909
PMCPMC5934309

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.