Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29203067›Full record

Trial reportOphthalmology2018

Personalized Prediction of Glaucoma Progression Under Different Target Intraocular Pressure Levels Using Filtered Forecasting Methods.

Pooyan Kazemian, Mariel S Lavieri, Mark P Van Oyen, Chris Andrews, Joshua D Stein

Abstract readMulticenter StudyRandomized Controlled TrialValidation Study
In one paragraph

Trial report in Ophthalmology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
27citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

27 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
  2. Unsupervised Clustering for POAG Phenotyping.Investigative ophthalmology & visual science · 2026
    Article
  3. Management and outcomes of primary open-angle glaucoma.Journal of family medicine and primary care · 2026
    Review
  4. Review
  5. Preoperative predictive thresholds for successful canaloplasty in glaucoma patients.Graefe's archive for clinical and experimental ophthalmology = Albrecht von Graefes Archiv fur klinische und experimentelle Ophthalmologie · 2025
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Comparison of clinical outcomes between gonioscopy-assisted transluminal trabeculotomy and trabeculectomy in advanced-stage pseudoexfoliation glaucoma.Graefe's archive for clinical and experimental ophthalmology = Albrecht von Graefes Archiv fur klinische und experimentelle Ophthalmologie · 2024
    Article
  9. Artificial intelligence in the anterior segment of eye diseases.International journal of ophthalmology · 2024
    Review
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Review
  14. Artificial intelligence in ophthalmology - Machines think!Indian journal of ophthalmology · 2022
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Review
  18. Observational
  19. Article
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Pooyan KazemianMedical Practice Evaluation Center, Division of General Internal Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.
Mariel S LavieriDepartment of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan School of Engineering, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Mark P Van OyenDepartment of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan School of Engineering, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Chris AndrewsDepartment of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, University of Michigan Medical School, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Center for Eye Policy and Innovation, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Joshua D SteinDepartment of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, University of Michigan Medical School, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Center for Eye Policy and Innovation, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Department of Health Management and Policy, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan. Electronic address: jdstein@med.umich.edu.

Funding

Personalized Forecasting of Disease Trajectory for Patients with Open Angle GlaucomaR01EY026641 · NEI · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI LAVIERI-WILLIAMS, MARIEL SOFIA, STEIN, JOSHUA D · 2016 to 2020
$2.9M
NEI NIH HHS R01 EY026641
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeTo generate personalized forecasts of how patients with open-angle glaucoma (OAG) experience disease progression at different intraocular pressure (IOP) levels to aid clinicians with setting personalized target IOPs.

designSecondary analyses using longitudinal data from 2 randomized controlled trials.

participantsParticipants with moderate or advanced OAG from the Collaborative Initial Glaucoma Treatment Study (CIGTS) or the Advanced Glaucoma Intervention Study (AGIS).

methodsBy using perimetric and tonometric data from trial participants, we developed and validated Kalman Filter (KF) models for fast-, slow-, and nonprogressing patients with OAG. The KF can generate personalized and dynamically updated forecasts of OAG progression under different target IOP levels. For each participant, we determined how mean deviation (MD) would change if the patient maintains his/her IOP at 1 of 7 levels (6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, or 24 mmHg) over the next 5 years. We also model and predict changes to MD over the same time horizon if IOP is increased or decreased by 3, 6, and 9 mmHg from the level attained in the trials.

main outcome measuresPersonalized estimates of the change in MD under different target IOP levels.

resultsA total of 571 participants (mean age, 64.2 years; standard deviation, 10.9) were followed for a mean of 6.5 years (standard deviation, 2.8). Our models predicted that, on average, fast progressors would lose 2.1, 6.7, and 11.2 decibels (dB) MD under target IOPs of 6, 15, and 24 mmHg, respectively, over 5 years. In contrast, on average, slow progressors would lose 0.8, 2.1, and 4.1 dB MD under the same target IOPs and time frame. When using our tool to quantify the OAG progression dynamics for all 571 patients, we found no statistically significant differences over 5 years between progression for black versus white, male versus female, and CIGTS versus AGIS participants under different target IOPs (P > 0.05 for all).

conclusionsTo our knowledge, this is the first clinical decision-making tool that generates personalized forecasts of the trajectory of OAG progression at different target IOP levels. This approach can help clinicians determine appropriate, personalized target IOPs for patients with OAG.

Indexed as

Decision Support TechniquesAgedAntihypertensive AgentsDisease ProgressionFemaleFollow-Up StudiesForecastingGlaucoma, Open-AngleHumansIntraocular PressureMaleMiddle AgedPrecision MedicineTonometry, OcularTrabeculectomyVisual FieldsAntihypertensive Agents

Identifiers

PMID29203067
PMCPMC5866175

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.