ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2018
Longitudinal Trends in the Prevalence of Detectable HIV Viremia: Population-Based Evidence From Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.
Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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13 citing papers in PubMed, 16 citations in OpenAlex.
- Maintain the gains: methods to evaluate the sustainability and scalability of HIV-related prevention, care, and treatment programs.Current opinion in HIV and AIDS · 2025Review
- Trends in population HIV viral suppression: a longitudinal analysis.AIDS (London, England) · 2025Article
- Global, regional, and national burden of HIV/AIDS, 1990-2021, and forecasts to 2050, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.The lancet. HIV · 2024Article
- Geospatial and temporal mapping of detectable HIV-1 viral loads amid dolutegravir rollout in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- A community-based intervention to decrease the prevalence of HIV viremia among people who inject drugs in Vietnam.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2022Article
- Large age shifts in HIV-1 incidence patterns in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
- Cohort Profile Update: Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS) and population-based HIV survey.International journal of epidemiology · 2021Article
- HIV incidence, viremia, and the national response in Eswatini: Two sequential population-based surveys.PloS one · 2021Article
- HIV incidence declines in a rural South African population: a G-imputation approach for inference.BMC public health · 2020Article
- Declines in HIV incidence among men and women in a South African population-based cohort.Nature communications · 2019Article
- Sociobehavioral and community predictors of unsuppressed HIV viral load: multilevel results from a hyperendemic rural South African population.AIDS (London, England) · 2019Article
- Association between severe drought and HIV prevention and care behaviors in Lesotho: A population-based survey 2016-2017.PLoS medicine · 2019Article
- Retroviruses and reproduction revisited.Journal of assisted reproduction and genetics · 2018Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.
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Abstract
Background: The prevalence of detectable viremia has previously been used to infer the potential for ongoing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. To date, no study has evaluated the longitudinal change in the prevalence of detectable viremia within the HIV-positive community (PDV+) and the entire population (PDVP) using data from a sub-Saharan African setting. Methods: In 2011, 2013, and 2014, we obtained 6752 HIV-positive and 15415 HIV-negative test results from a population-based surveillance system in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa. We quantified the PDV+ as the proportion of the 6752 HIV-positive results with a viral load >1550 copies/mL and the PDVP as the proportion of the 6752 HIV-positive and 15415 HIV-negative results with a viral load >1550 copies/mL. Results: Between 2011 and 2014, the PDV+ decreased by 16.5 percentage points (pp) for women (from 71.8% to 55.3%) and 10.6 pp for men (from 77.8% to 67.2%). However, a steady rise in the overall HIV prevalence, from 26.7% to 32.4%, offset the declines in the PDV+ for both sexes. For women, the PDVP decreased by only 2.1 pp, from 21.3% to 19.2%, but for men, the PDVP actually increased by 1.6 pp, from 14.6% to 16.2%, over the survey period. Conclusions: The PDV+, which is currently being tracked under the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, may not be an accurate indicator of the potential for ongoing HIV transmission. There is a critical need for countries to monitor and report the prevalence of detectable viremia among all adults, irrespective of HIV status.
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