ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2017
Predicting phenological shifts in a changing climate.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers.
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27 citing papers in PubMed.
- Divergent Thermal Reaction Norms of the Spontaneous Mutation Rate Among Populations of Chironomus riparius.Molecular ecology · 2026Article
- The role of a viral symbiont in the thermal mismatch of host-parasitoid interactions.The Journal of experimental biology · 2026Article
- Mapping coastal forest retreat using convolutional neural networks and different satellite imagery.PloS one · 2026Article
- Evaluating Past Range Shifts and Niche Dynamics of Giant Pandas Since the Last Interglacial.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2025Article
- Effects of zooplankton abundance on the spawning phenology of winter-spawning Downs herring (Clupea harengus).PloS one · 2025Article
- Predicting the fundamental thermal niche of ectotherms.Ecology · 2024Article
- "A comparison of thermal stress response between Drosophila melanogaster and Drosophila pseudoobscura reveals differences between species and sexes".Journal of insect physiology · 2024Article
- Forecasting the seasonal phenology ofFrontiers in insect science · 2024Article
- Life-history responses to temperature and seasonality mediate ectotherm consumer-resource dynamics under climate warming.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2023Article
- Rising temperature drives tipping points in mutualistic networks.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Crowd-sourced observations of a polyphagous moth reveal evidence of allochronic speciation varying along a latitudinal gradient.PloS one · 2023Article
- Phenological Shifts in a Warming World Affect Physiology and Life History in a Damselfly.Insects · 2022Article
- Chasing genetic correlation breakers to stimulate population resilience to climate change.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Long-term individualized monitoring of sympatric bat species reveals distinct species- and demographic differences in hibernation phenology.BMC ecology and evolution · 2022Article
- Article
- Grow fast, die young: Does compensatory growth reduce survival of juvenile blacktip sharks (Ecology and evolution · 2021Article
- Spatiotemporal effects on dung beetle activities in island forests-home garden matrix in a tropical village landscape.Scientific reports · 2021Article
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- Different life stage, different risks: Thermal performance across the life cycle ofEcology and evolution · 2021Article
- Improved NDVI based proxy leaf-fall indicator to assess rainfall sensitivity of deciduousness in the central Indian forests through remote sensing.Scientific reports · 2020Article
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2 authors.
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Abstract
Phenological shifts constitute one of the clearest manifestations of climate warming. Advanced emergence is widely reported in high-latitude ectotherms, but a significant number of species exhibit delayed, or no change in, emergence. Here we present a mechanistic theoretical framework that reconciles these disparate observations and predicts population-level phenological patterns based solely on data on temperature responses of the underlying life history traits. Our model, parameterized with data from insects at different latitudes, shows that peak abundance occurs earlier in the year when warming increases the mean environmental temperature, but is delayed when warming increases the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations. We find that warming does not necessarily lead to a longer activity period in high-latitude species because it elevates summer temperatures above the upper limit for reproduction and development. Our findings both confirm and confound expectations for ectotherm species affected by climate warming: an increase in the mean temperature is more detrimental to low-latitude species adapted to high mean temperatures and low-amplitude seasonal fluctuations; an increase in seasonal fluctuations is more detrimental to high-latitude species adapted to low mean temperatures and high-amplitude fluctuations.
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