ArticleBMC public health2017
Estimating disease burden of a potential A(H7N9) pandemic influenza outbreak in the United States.
Article in BMC public health, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Resilience as a measure of preparedness for pandemic influenza outbreaks.Health systems (Basingstoke, England) · 2024Article
- Avian influenza A (H7N9) virus: from low pathogenic to highly pathogenic.Frontiers of medicine · 2021Review
- Impact assessment of full and partial stay-at-home orders, face mask usage, and contact tracing: An agent-based simulation study of COVID-19 for an urban region.Global epidemiology · 2020Article
- Lessons learned from Zaire ebolavirus to help address urgent needs for vaccines against Sudan ebolavirus and Marburg virus.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2020Article
- Live poultry market closure and avian influenza A (H7N9) infection in cities of China, 2013-2017: an ecological study.BMC infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Characteristics of Microbes Most Likely to Cause Pandemics and Global Catastrophes.Current topics in microbiology and immunology · 2019Article
- Primary Pandemic Prevention.American journal of lifestyle medicineReview
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3 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundSince spring 2013, periodic emergence of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China has heightened the concern for a possible pandemic outbreak among humans, though it is believed that the virus is not yet human-to-human transmittable. Till June 2017, A(H7N9) has resulted in 1533 laboratory-confirmed cases of human infections causing 592 deaths. The aim of this paper is to present disease burden estimates (measured by infection attack rates (IAR) and number of deaths) in the event of a possible pandemic outbreak caused by human-to-human transmission capability acquired by A(H7N9) virus. Even though such a pandemic will likely spread worldwide, our focus in this paper is to estimate the impact on the United States alone.
methodThe method first uses a data clustering technique to divide 50 states in the U.S. into a small number of clusters. Thereafter, for a few selected states in each cluster, the method employs an agent-based (AB) model to simulate human A(H7N9) influenza pandemic outbreaks. The model uses demographic and epidemiological data. A few selected non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures are applied to mitigate the outbreaks. Disease burden for the U.S. is estimated by combining results from the clusters applying a method used in stratified sampling.
resultsTwo possible pandemic scenarios with R
conclusionsThe results reflect a possible worst-case scenario where the outbreak extends over all states of the U.S. and antivirals and vaccines are not administered. Our disease burden estimations are also likely to be somewhat high due to the fact that only dense urban regions covering approximately 3% of the geographic area and 81% of the population are used for simulating sample outbreaks. Outcomes from these simulations are extrapolated over the remaining 19% of the population spread sparsely over 97% of the area. Furthermore, the full extent of possible NPIs, if deployed, could also have lowered the disease burden estimates.
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