Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29175867›Full record

ArticleJournal of epidemiology and community health2018

High percentage of undiagnosed HIV cases within a hyperendemic South African community: a population-based study.

Alain Vandormael, Tulio de Oliveira, Frank Tanser, Till Bärnighausen, Joshua T Herbeck

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of epidemiology and community health, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
23citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

23 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Prevalence and predictors of medical information avoidance: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Annals of behavioral medicine : a publication of the Society of Behavioral Medicine · 2025
    Pooled it
  2. Trial
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  9. Large age shifts in HIV-1 incidence patterns in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021
    Article
  10. Prevalence and Risk Factors forOpen forum infectious diseases · 2021
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Alain VandormaelAfrica Health Research Institute (AHRI), Durban, South Africa.ORCID 0000-0002-5742-0511
Tulio de OliveiraKwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.
Frank TanserAfrica Health Research Institute (AHRI), Durban, South Africa.
Till BärnighausenAfrica Health Research Institute (AHRI), Durban, South Africa.
Joshua T HerbeckInternational Clinical Research Center, Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.

Funding

Integrated bio-social models for HIV epidemiologyR01AI108490 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI GOODREAU, STEVEN M., HERBECK, JOSHUA T · 2014 to 2018
$3.4M
Training Tanzanian Researchers for HIV/AIDS Implementation ScienceD43TW009775 · FIC · HARVARD UNIVERSITY D/B/A HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI Wafaie W Fawzi, Christopher Sudfeld · 2015 to 2026
$3.0M
New Methods for the design and evaluation of large HIV prevention interventionsR01AI112339 · NIAID · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI SPIEGELMAN, DONNA L · 2014 to 2017
$2.7M
Causal Pathways to population health impact of HIV antiretroviral treatmentR01HD084233 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF KWAZULU-NATAL · PI BARNIGHAUSEN, TILL, TANSER, FRANK COURTENEY · 2015 to 2021
$2.3M
Can HIV Hot-Spots be eradicated? An intervention to decrease HIV transmission to young women in rural KwaZulu-Natal South AfricaR01AI124389 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF KWAZULU-NATAL · PI BARNIGHAUSEN, TILL, TANSER, FRANK COURTENEY · 2016 to 2020
$2.1M
Combined phylogenetic and epidemiological analysis to identify HIV transmission sources in Seattle WAR01AI127232 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI HERBECK, JOSHUA T, KERANI, ROXANNE PIEPER · 2016 to 2019
$2.0M
FIC NIH HHS D43 TW009775NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI108490NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI112339NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI124389NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI127232NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD084233Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundUndiagnosed HIV infections could undermine efforts to reverse the global AIDS epidemic by 2030. In this study, we estimated the percentage of HIV-positive persons who remain undiagnosed within a hyperendemic South African community.

methodsThe data come from a population-based surveillance system located in the Umkhanyakude district of the northern KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. We annually tested 38 661 adults for HIV between 2005 and 2016. Using the HIV-positive test results of 12 039 (31%) participants, we then back-calculated the incidence of infection and derived the number of undiagnosed cases from this result.

resultsThe percentage of undiagnosed HIV cases decreased from 29.3% in 2005 to 15.8% in 2011. During this period, however, approximately 50% of the participants refused to test for HIV, which lengthened the average time from infection to diagnosis. Consequently, the percentage of undiagnosed HIV cases reversed direction and steadily increased from 16.1% to 18.9% over the 2012-2016 period.

conclusionsResults from this hyperendemic South African setting show that the HIV testing rate is low, with long infection times, and an unsatisfactorily high percentage of undiagnosed cases. A high level of repeat HIV testing is needed to minimise the time from infection to diagnosis if the global AIDS epidemic is to be reversed within the next two decades.

Indexed as

Diagnostic ErrorsEndemic DiseasesAdolescentAdultAlgorithmsFemaleHIV InfectionsHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedPopulation SurveillanceSerologic TestsSouth AfricaYoung AdultHIVSouth Africatest-and-treattestingundiagnosed

Identifiers

PMID29175867
PMCPMC6340103

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.