Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29171811›Full record

ArticleThe New England journal of medicine2017

Simulation of Growth Trajectories of Childhood Obesity into Adulthood.

Zachary J Ward, Michael W Long, Stephen C Resch, Catherine M Giles, Angie L Cradock, Steven L Gortmaker

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The New England journal of medicine, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT05159141 (The Role of Circadian Rhythm in the Effect of Sleep Intervention on Obesity Prevention in Early Childhood), which is not on this map. Cited by 404 papers, 12 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
404citing papers in PubMed, 12 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT05159141 naunknown statusnot on this mapstarted 2022, after this paper: background citation

The Role of Circadian Rhythm in the Effect of Sleep Intervention on Obesity Prevention in Early Childhood

TypeinterventionalSponsorShanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineRan2022 to 2024Enrolled480ConditionsInfant Sleep ProblemArmsBehavioral sleep intervention
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

404 citing papers in PubMed, 12 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  3. Risk Factors in the First 1000 Days of Life Associated With Childhood Obesity: A Systematic Review and Risk Factor Quality Assessment.Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity · 2026
    Pooled it
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  5. Identifying Key Predictors of Mid-Childhood Obesity in a Population-Based Cohort Study: An Evidence Synthesis and Predictive Modeling Study.Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity · 2025
    Pooled it
  6. New Perspectives in Modulating the Entero-Insular Axis in Pediatric Obesity.International journal of molecular sciences · 2025
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344 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Zachary J WardFrom the Center for Health Decision Science (Z.J.W., S.C.R.) and the Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences (C.M.G., A.L.C., S.L.G.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston; and the Department of Prevention and Community Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC (M.W.L.).
Michael W LongFrom the Center for Health Decision Science (Z.J.W., S.C.R.) and the Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences (C.M.G., A.L.C., S.L.G.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston; and the Department of Prevention and Community Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC (M.W.L.).
Stephen C ReschFrom the Center for Health Decision Science (Z.J.W., S.C.R.) and the Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences (C.M.G., A.L.C., S.L.G.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston; and the Department of Prevention and Community Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC (M.W.L.).
Catherine M GilesFrom the Center for Health Decision Science (Z.J.W., S.C.R.) and the Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences (C.M.G., A.L.C., S.L.G.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston; and the Department of Prevention and Community Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC (M.W.L.).
Angie L CradockFrom the Center for Health Decision Science (Z.J.W., S.C.R.) and the Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences (C.M.G., A.L.C., S.L.G.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston; and the Department of Prevention and Community Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC (M.W.L.).
Steven L GortmakerFrom the Center for Health Decision Science (Z.J.W., S.C.R.) and the Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences (C.M.G., A.L.C., S.L.G.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston; and the Department of Prevention and Community Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC (M.W.L.).

Funding

Transitions from Preschool through High School: Family, Schools & Neighborhoods - Administrative SupplementR01HD052646 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI Wei Zhao · 2007 to 2026
$36.5M
NCCDPHP CDC HHS U48 DP000064NCCDPHP CDC HHS U48 DP001946
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAlthough the current obesity epidemic has been well documented in children and adults, less is known about long-term risks of adult obesity for a given child at his or her present age and weight. We developed a simulation model to estimate the risk of adult obesity at the age of 35 years for the current population of children in the United States.

methodsWe pooled height and weight data from five nationally representative longitudinal studies totaling 176,720 observations from 41,567 children and adults. We simulated growth trajectories across the life course and adjusted for secular trends. We created 1000 virtual populations of 1 million children through the age of 19 years that were representative of the 2016 population of the United States and projected their trajectories in height and weight up to the age of 35 years. Severe obesity was defined as a body-mass index (BMI, the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) of 35 or higher in adults and 120% or more of the 95th percentile in children.

resultsGiven the current level of childhood obesity, the models predicted that a majority of today's children (57.3%; 95% uncertainly interval [UI], 55.2 to 60.0) will be obese at the age of 35 years, and roughly half of the projected prevalence will occur during childhood. Our simulations indicated that the relative risk of adult obesity increased with age and BMI, from 1.17 (95% UI, 1.09 to 1.29) for overweight 2-year-olds to 3.10 (95% UI, 2.43 to 3.65) for 19-year-olds with severe obesity. For children with severe obesity, the chance they will no longer be obese at the age of 35 years fell from 21.0% (95% UI, 7.3 to 47.3) at the age of 2 years to 6.1% (95% UI, 2.1 to 9.9) at the age of 19 years.

conclusionsOn the basis of our simulation models, childhood obesity and overweight will continue to be a major health problem in the United States. Early development of obesity predicted obesity in adulthood, especially for children who were severely obese. (Funded by the JPB Foundation and others.).

Indexed as

Body HeightBody WeightGrowthAdolescentAdultBody Mass IndexChildChild, PreschoolFemaleHumansLongitudinal StudiesMaleModels, TheoreticalObesityPediatric ObesityPrevalence

Identifiers

PMID29171811
PMCPMC9036858

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.