ArticleMalaria journal2017
Malaria early warning tool: linking inter-annual climate and malaria variability in northern Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands.
Article in Malaria journal, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Understanding the Effect of a Changing Climate on the Re-Emergence of Mosquito-Borne Diseases in Vulnerable Small Island Nations: A Systematic Review.Zoonoses and public health · 2025Pooled it
- A systematic review of published literature on mosquito control action thresholds across the world.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Pooled it
- Spatial Risk Factors of Vector-Borne Diseases in Pacific Island Countries and Territories: A Scoping Review.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Review
- Mapping Malaria Susceptibility in the Oti Region of Ghana Using Remote Sensing and GIS: A Retrospective Observational Study.Health science reports · 2025Article
- Nowcasting Vector Mosquito Abundance and Determining Its Association With Malaria Epidemics in South Korea.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2025Article
- Effects of temperature, rainfall, and El Niño Southern Oscillations on dengue-like-illness incidence in Solomon Islands.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Prevalence and risk factors of adverse birth outcomes in the Pacific Island region: A scoping review.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2022Article
- Early warning systems (EWSs) for chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika outbreaks: What is the evidence? A scoping review.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- One step forward, two steps back: Tensions between malaria elimination and improved malaria surveillance in the Solomon Islands.AIMS public health · 2020Article
- Smallest Anopheles farauti occur during the peak transmission season in the Solomon Islands.Malaria journal · 2019Article
- Article
- Mapping a Plasmodium transmission spatial suitability index in Solomon Islands: a malaria monitoring and control tool.Malaria journal · 2018Article
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Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundMalaria control remains a significant challenge in the Solomon Islands. Despite progress made by local malaria control agencies over the past decade, case rates remain high in some areas of the country. Studies from around the world have confirmed important links between climate and malaria transmission. This study focuses on understanding the links between malaria and climate in Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands, with a view towards developing a climate-based monitoring and early warning for periods of enhanced malaria transmission.
methodsClimate records were sourced from the Solomon Islands meteorological service (SIMS) and historical malaria case records were sourced from the National Vector-Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP). A declining trend in malaria cases over the last decade associated with improved malaria control was adjusted for. A stepwise regression was performed between climate variables and climate-associated malaria transmission (CMT) at different lag intervals to determine where significant relationships existed. The suitability of these results for use in a three-tiered categorical warning system was then assessed using a Mann-Whitney U test.
resultsOf the climate variables considered, only rainfall had a consistently significant relationship with malaria in North Guadalcanal. Optimal lag intervals were determined for prediction using R
conclusionThis study demonstrated that rainfall provides the best predictor of malaria transmission in North Guadalcanal. This relationship is thought to be underpinned by the unique hydrological conditions in northern Guadalcanal which allow sandbars to form across the mouths of estuaries which act to develop or increase stagnant brackish marshes in low rainfall periods. These are ideal habitats for the main mosquito vector, Anopheles farauti. High rainfall accumulations result in the flushing of these habitats, reducing their viability. The results of this study are now being used as the basis of a malaria early warning system which has been jointly implemented by the SIMS, NVBDCP and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
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