ArticleEnvironmental research2018
The association between ambient temperature and mortality in South Africa: A time-series analysis.
Article in Environmental research, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 63 papers, 10 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
63 citing papers in PubMed, 10 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Building the model: a review of input structures in extreme temperature-health.Environmental health : a global access science source · 2026Pooled it
- Effect modifiers of the temperature-mortality association for general and older adults population of Brazil's metropolitan areas.Cadernos de saude publica · 2025Pooled it
- Climate change impacts on child and adolescent health and well-being: A narrative review.Journal of global health · 2024Pooled it
- Association between temperature and mortality: a multi-city time series study in Sichuan Basin, southwest China.Environmental health and preventive medicine · 2024Pooled it
- Urban heat island impacts on heat-related cardiovascular morbidity: A time series analysis of older adults in US metropolitan areas.Environment international · 2023Pooled it
- Heatwave Definition and Impact on Cardiovascular Health: A Systematic Review.Public health reviews · 2023Pooled it
- The Effect of High and Low Ambient Temperature on Infant Health: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Pooled it
- Mortality risk attributable to diurnal temperature range: a multicity study in Yunnan of southwest China.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2021Pooled it
- Association between moderately cold temperature and mortality in China.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2020Pooled it
- Climate change adaptation in South Africa: a case study on the role of the health sector.Globalization and health · 2019Pooled it
- Mapping the global health burden of climate-sensitive exposures: a systematic scoping review.Environmental health : a global access science source · 2026Article
- The mediating role of acute respiratory infections in temperature-mortality associations in the Czech Republic, 1982-2019.International journal of biometeorology · 2026Article
- Understanding the impact of extreme weather events on non-communicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Temperature-Related Health Impacts: A Scoping Review and Benchmarking Exercise to Inform a Heat Action Plan.Annals of global health · 2026Article
- Current status and time trends in the burden of environmental heat and cold exposure among the population aged 60 years and older: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Quantifying intra-urban socio-economic and environmental vulnerability to extreme heat events in Johannesburg, South Africa.International journal of biometeorology · 2025Article
- Impacts of Ambient Temperatures on Pediatric Anemia in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Regional Ecological Study.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
- Narrative Review on Infants' Thermoregulatory Response to Heat.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Review
- Impact of Heat on Respiratory Hospitalizations among Older Adults in 120 Large U.S. Urban Areas.Annals of the American Thoracic Society · 2025Article
- Examination of the association between temperature variability and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in South Africa, 2006-2016.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2025Article
3 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThere is an extensive literature describing temperature-mortality associations in developed regions, but research from developing countries, and Africa in particular, is limited.
methodsWe conducted a time-series analysis using daily temperature data and a national dataset of all 8.8 million recorded deaths in South Africa between 1997 and 2013. Mortality and temperature data were linked at the district municipality level and relationships were estimated with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and pooled in a multivariate meta-analysis.
resultsWe found an association between daily maximum temperature and mortality. The relative risk for all-age all-cause mortality on very cold and hot days (1st and 99th percentile of the temperature distribution) was 1.14 (1.10,1.17) and 1.06 (1.03,1.09), respectively, when compared to the minimum mortality temperature. This "U" shaped relationship was evident for every age and cause group investigated, except among 25-44 year olds. The strongest associations were in the youngest (< 5) and oldest (> 64) age groups and for cardiorespiratory causes. Heat effects occurred immediately after exposure but diminished quickly whereas cold effects were delayed but persistent. Overall, 3.4% of deaths (~ 290,000) in South Africa were attributable to non-optimum temperatures over the study period. We also present results for the 52 district municipalities individually.
conclusionsAn assessment of the largest-ever dataset for analyzing temperature-mortality associations in (South) Africa indicates mortality burdens associated with cold and heat, and identifies the young and elderly as particularly vulnerable.
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