Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29152596›Full record

ArticleWellcome open research2017

Estimating the number of cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia using geostatistical methods.

Kebede Deribe, Jorge Cano, Emanuele Giorgi, David M Pigott, Nick Golding, Rachel L Pullan, Abdisalan M Noor, Elizabeth A Cromwell, Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman, Fikre Enquselassie and 6 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Wellcome open research, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 38 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
38citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

38 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. Pooled it
  4. Global epidemiology of podoconiosis: A systematic review.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2018
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  10. Geostatistical modelling of the distribution, risk and burden of podoconiosis in Kenya.Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · 2023
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  20. Severely stigmatised skin neglected tropical diseases: a protocol for social science engagement.Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · 2020
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

Kebede DeribeSchool of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8526-6996
Jorge CanoLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9864-5058
Emanuele GiorgiLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0640-181X
David M PigottInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Nick GoldingSpatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Rachel L PullanLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Abdisalan M NoorCentre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Elizabeth A CromwellInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Aaron Osgood-ZimmermanInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Fikre EnquselassieSchool of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Asrat HailuDepartment of Microbiology, Immunology and Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Christopher J L MurrayInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Melanie J NewportWellcome Trust Brighton and Sussex Centre for Global Health Research, Brighton and Sussex Medical School, Brighton, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8946-7525
Simon J BrookerBill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA.
Simon I HayInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Gail DaveyWellcome Trust Brighton and Sussex Centre for Global Health Research, Brighton and Sussex Medical School, Brighton, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2796-7468

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/J008621/1Medical Research Council MR/M015297/1Wellcome Trust 201900Wellcome Trust 201900/Z/16/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIn 2011, the World Health Organization recognized podoconiosis as one of the neglected tropical diseases. Nonetheless, the number of people with podoconiosis and the geographical distribution of the disease is poorly understood. Based on a nationwide mapping survey and geostatistical modelling, we predict the prevalence of podoconiosis and estimate the number of cases across Ethiopia.

methodsWe used nationwide data collected in Ethiopia between 2008 and 2013. Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 villages in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations. We developed a geostatistical model of podoconiosis prevalence among adults (individuals aged 15 years or above), by combining environmental factors. The number of people with podoconiosis was then estimated using a gridded map of adult population density for 2015.

resultsPodoconiosis is endemic in 345 districts in Ethiopia: 144 in Oromia, 128 in Southern Nations, Nationalities and People's [SNNP], 64 in Amhara, 4 in Benishangul Gumuz, 4 in Tigray and 1 in Somali Regional State. Nationally, our estimates suggest that 1,537,963 adults (95% confidence intervals, 290,923-4,577,031 adults) were living with podoconiosis in 2015. Three regions (SNNP, Oromia and Amhara) contributed 99% of the cases. The highest proportion of individuals with podoconiosis resided in the SNNP (39%), while 32% and 29% of people with podoconiosis resided in Oromia and Amhara Regional States, respectively. Tigray and Benishangul Gumuz Regional States bore lower burdens, and in the remaining regions, podoconiosis was almost non-existent.  Discussion: The estimates of podoconiosis cases presented here based upon the combination of currently available epidemiological data and a robust modelling approach clearly show that podoconiosis is highly endemic in Ethiopia. Given the presence of low cost prevention, and morbidity management and disability prevention services, it is our collective responsibility to scale-up interventions rapidly.

Indexed as

elephantiasisEthiopialymphoedemamossy footneglected tropical diseasepodoconiosis

Identifiers

PMID29152596
PMCPMC5668927

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LicenceCC BY
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.