ArticleBMJ global health2017
Modelling historical changes in the force-of-infection of Chagas disease to inform control and elimination programmes: application in Colombia.
Article in BMJ global health, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Heterogeneity of Trypanosoma cruzi infection rates in vectors and animal reservoirs in Colombia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Parasites & vectors · 2019Pooled it
- Strategies for tackling Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis: A systematic review and comparison of transmission models, including an assessment of the wider Taeniidae family transmission models.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Pooled it
- Illnesses, Violence, Forced Displacement and Differentiated Citizenship Among the Hitnü People from Arauca, Colombia.Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities · 2026Article
- Article
- Serodynamics: A primer and synthetic review of methods for epidemiological inference using serological data.Epidemics · 2024Review
- The epidemiology of Chagas disease in the Americas.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2024Review
- The Hidden Hand of Asymptomatic Infection Hinders Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Modeling Analysis.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024Article
- Oral Chagas Disease in Colombia-Confirmed and Suspected Routes of Transmission.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2024Review
- From serological surveys to disease burden: a modelling pipeline for Chagas disease.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2023Article
- serosim: An R package for simulating serological data arising from vaccination, epidemiological and antibody kinetics processes.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Navigating drug repurposing for Chagas disease: advances, challenges, and opportunities.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2023Review
- Temporal assessment of entomological surveillance of Trypanosoma cruzi vectors in an endemic area of northeastern Brazil.PloS one · 2023Observational
- Health conditions of Hitnü indigenous people potentially exposed to crude oil in Arauca, ColombiaBiomedica : revista del Instituto Nacional de Salud · 2022Article
- Genetic Instability among Hitnü People Living in Colombian Crude-Oil Exploitation Areas.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Linear and Machine Learning modelling for spatiotemporal disease predictions: Force-of-Infection of Chagas disease.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Updated Estimates and Mapping for Prevalence of Chagas Disease among Adults, United States.Emerging infectious diseases · 2022Review
- Spatiotemporal variations in exposure: Chagas disease in Colombia as a case study.BMC medical research methodology · 2022Article
- The potential risk of enzootic Trypanosoma cruzi transmission inside four training and re-training military battalions (BITER) in Colombia.Parasites & vectors · 2021Article
- Force-of-infection of Taenia solium porcine cysticercosis: a modelling analysis to assess global incidence and prevalence trends.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Human Trypanosoma cruzi infection is driven by eco-social interactions in rural communities of the Argentine Chaco.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundWHO's 2020 milestones for Chagas disease include having all endemic Latin American countries certified with no intradomiciliary
methodsFocusing on Colombia, all the available age-structured serological surveys (undertaken between 1995 and 2014) were searched and compiled. A total of 109 serosurveys were found, comprising 83 742 individuals from rural (indigenous and non-indigenous) and urban settings in 14 (out of 32) administrative units (departments). Estimates of the force-of-infection (FoI) were obtained by fitting and comparing three catalytic models using Bayesian methods to reconstruct temporal and spatial patterns over the course of three decades (between 1984 and 2014).
resultsSignificant downward changes in the FoI were identified over the course of the three decades, and in some specific locations the predicted current seroprevalence in children aged 0-5 years is <1%. However, pronounced heterogeneity exists within departments, especially between indigenous, rural and urban settings, with the former exhibiting the highest FoI (up to 66 new infections/1000 people susceptible/year). The FoI in most of the indigenous settings remain unchanged during the three decades investigated. Current prevalence in adults in these 15 departments varies between 10% and 90% depending on the dynamics of historical exposure.
conclusionsAssessing progress towards the control of Chagas disease requires quantifying the impact of historical exposure on current age-specific prevalence at subnational level. In Colombia, despite the evident progress, there is a marked heterogeneity indicating that in some areas the vector control interventions have not been effective, hindering the possibility of achieving interruption by 2020. A substantial burden of chronic cases remains even in locations where serological criteria for transmission interruption may have been achieved, therefore still demanding diagnosis and treatment interventions.
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