Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29136161›Full record

SynthesisClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2018

Trends and Predictors of Syphilis Prevalence in the General Population: Global Pooled Analyses of 1103 Prevalence Measures Including 136 Million Syphilis Tests.

Alex Smolak, Jane Rowley, Nico Nagelkerke, Nicholas J Kassebaum, R Matthew Chico, Eline L Korenromp, Laith J Abu-Raddad

Open access · hybridAbstract readMeta-Analysis
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 9 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
35citing papers in PubMed, 9 pooled it
3.9field-weighted citation impact, top 6% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

35 citing papers in PubMed, 9 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 81 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Epidemiology ofBMJ global health · 2026
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  5. Epidemiology of gonorrhoea: systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions, World Health Organization European Region, 1949 to 2021.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024
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  9. Epidemiology ofJournal of global health · 2019
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  11. Trend in the detection rate of syphilis among older adults: time series analysis, Brazil, 2014-2023.Epidemiologia e servicos de saude : revista do Sistema Unico de Saude do Brasil · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.

Alex SmolakInfectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar.
Jane RowleyLondon, United Kingdom.
Nico NagelkerkeMalawi-Liverpool Wellcome Trust, Blantyre, Malawi.
Nicholas J KassebaumInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Washington.
R Matthew ChicoLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom.
Eline L KorenrompAvenir Health, Geneva, Switzerland.
Laith J Abu-RaddadInfectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar.
Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar · QAInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation · USLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GBMalawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme · MW

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: This study assessed levels, trends, and associations of observed syphilis prevalence in the general adult population using global pooled analyses. Methods: A standardized database of syphilis prevalence was compiled by pooling systematically gathered data. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted using data from the period 1990-2016 to estimate pooled measures and assess predictors and trends. Countries were classified by World Health Organization region. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: The database included 1103 prevalence measures from 136 million syphilis tests across 154 countries (85% from women in antenatal care). Global pooled mean prevalence (weighted by region population size) was 1.11% (95% confidence interval [CI], .99-1.22). Prevalence predictors were region, diagnostic assay, sample size, and calendar year interacting with region. Compared to the African Region, the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) was 0.42 (95% CI, .33-.54) for the Region of the Americas, 0.13 (95% CI, .09-.19) for the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 0.05 (95% CI, .03-.07) for the European Region, 0.21 (95% CI, .16-.28) for the South-East Asia Region, and 0.41 (95% CI, .32-.53) for the Western Pacific Region. Treponema pallidum hemagglutination assay (TPHA) only or rapid plasma reagin (RPR) only, compared with dual RPR/TPHA diagnosis, produced higher prevalence (AOR >1.26), as did smaller sample-size studies (<500 persons) (AOR >2.16). Prevalence declined in all regions; the annual AORs ranged from 0.84 (95% CI, .79-.90) in the Eastern Mediterranean to 0.97 (95% CI, .97-1.01) in the Western Pacific. The pooled mean male-to-female prevalence ratio was 1.00 (95% CI, .89-1.13). Sensitivity analyses confirmed robustness of results. Conclusions: Syphilis prevalence has declined globally over the past 3 decades. Large differences in prevalence persist among regions, with the African Region consistently the most affected.

Indexed as

AdultDatabases, FactualFemaleGlobal HealthHemagglutination TestsHumansMalePregnancyPrenatal CarePrevalenceReaginsRegression AnalysisSyphilisSyphilis SerodiagnosisTreponema pallidumReagins

Identifiers

PMID29136161
PMCPMC5888928
OpenAlexW2767636758

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.