Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29134435›Full record

ArticleEcoHealth2018

Plant Phenology Supports the Multi-emergence Hypothesis for Ebola Spillover Events.

Katharina C Wollenberg Valero, Raphael D Isokpehi, Noah E Douglas, Seenith Sivasundaram, Brianna Johnson, Kiara Wootson, Ayana McGill

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in EcoHealth, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed
0.5field-weighted citation impact, top 35% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed, 13 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Spatial risks of Orthoebolavirus spillover vary based on outbreak type.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Katharina C Wollenberg ValeroSchool of Environmental Sciences, University of Hull, Cottingham Road, Kingston upon Hull, HU67RX, UK. k.wollenberg-valero@hull.ac.uk.
Raphael D IsokpehiDepartment of Natural Sciences, College of Science, Engineering and Mathematics, Bethune-Cookman University, Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
Noah E DouglasDepartment of Natural Sciences, College of Science, Engineering and Mathematics, Bethune-Cookman University, Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
Seenith SivasundaramDepartment of Mathematics and Physics, College of Science, Engineering and Mathematics, Bethune-Cookman University, Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
Brianna JohnsonDepartment of Natural Sciences, College of Science, Engineering and Mathematics, Bethune-Cookman University, Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
Kiara WootsonDepartment of Mathematics and Physics, College of Science, Engineering and Mathematics, Bethune-Cookman University, Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
Ayana McGillDepartment of Natural Sciences, College of Science, Engineering and Mathematics, Bethune-Cookman University, Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
Bethune-Cookman University · USUniversity of Hull · GB

Funding

National Science Foundation HRD-1435186
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Ebola virus disease outbreaks in animals (including humans and great apes) start with sporadic host switches from unknown reservoir species. The factors leading to such spillover events are little explored. Filoviridae viruses have a wide range of natural hosts and are unstable once outside hosts. Spillover events, which involve the physical transfer of viral particles across species, could therefore be directly promoted by conditions of host ecology and environment. In this report, we outline a proof of concept that temporal fluctuations of a set of ecological and environmental variables describing the dynamics of the host ecosystem are able to predict such events of Ebola virus spillover to humans and animals. We compiled a data set of climate and plant phenology variables and Ebola virus disease spillovers in humans and animals. We identified critical biotic and abiotic conditions for spillovers via multiple regression and neural network-based time series regression. Phenology variables proved to be overall better predictors than climate variables. African phenology variables are not yet available as a comprehensive online resource. Given the likely importance of phenology for forecasting the likelihood of future Ebola spillover events, our results highlight the need for cost-effective transect surveys to supply phenology data for predictive modelling efforts.

Indexed as

AnimalsClimate ChangeDisease OutbreaksDisease ReservoirsDisease Transmission, InfectiousEbolavirusEcosystemHemorrhagic Fever, EbolaHumansSeasonsClimateClimate changeEmerging infectious diseaseNormalized Difference Vegetation IndexPhenologySpillover

Identifiers

PMID29134435
PMCPMC6245028
OpenAlexW2770941704

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.