ArticleCirculation2018
Genetic Predisposition, Clinical Risk Factor Burden, and Lifetime Risk of Atrial Fibrillation.
Article in Circulation, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT06553391 (Heart Rhythm Changes in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiopulmonary Bypass), which is not on this map. Cited by 147 papers, 7 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Heart Rhythm Changes in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiopulmonary Bypass: a Retrospective Analysis
Who cites it
147 citing papers in PubMed, 7 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 275 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prognostic implications of stress test-induced arrhythmias: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Open heart · 2025Pooled it
- 2023 ACC/AHA/ACCP/HRS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Joint Committee on Clinical Practice Guidelines.Journal of the American College of Cardiology · 2024Guideline
- Guideline
- Big Data in cardiac surgery: real world and perspectives.Journal of cardiothoracic surgery · 2022Pooled it
- An Updated Meta-Analysis of DOACs vs. VKAs in Atrial Fibrillation Patients With Bioprosthetic Heart Valve.Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine · 2022Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Multi-ethnic genome-wide association study for atrial fibrillation.Nature genetics · 2018Pooled it
- 2-Hydroxybenzylamine for Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation: A First-in-Human Clinical Pilot Trial.Circulation. Arrhythmia and electrophysiology · 2025Trial
- The impact of atrial fibrillation on clinical outcomes in heart failure with mid-range and preserved ejection fraction patients.Heart rhythm · 2024Trial
- Predictive Accuracy of a Clinical and Genetic Risk Model for Atrial Fibrillation.Circulation. Genomic and precision medicine · 2021Trial
- Trial
- Combined treatment with valsartan and fluvastatin to delay disease progression in nonpermanent atrial fibrillation with hypertension: A clinical trial.Clinical cardiology · 2020Trial
- Large-Scale Assessment of a Smartwatch to Identify Atrial Fibrillation.The New England journal of medicine · 2019Trial
- Trial
- Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation Risk Through the Integration of Genetic Information and Artificial Intelligence-Based Electrocardiogram Data.Journal of arrhythmia · 2026Article
- Dronedarone vs class Ic agents for early AF: Protocol for the DRIVE-AF randomized clinical trial.Heart rhythm O2 · 2026Article
- Kill Four Birds With One Stone: Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation, Atrial Flutter, and Supraventricular Tachycardia Plus Left Atrial Appendage.Journal of medical cases · 2026Article
- The global burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to behavioral risk factors and its trends from 1990 to 2021.Journal of advanced research · 2026Article
- A model for prediction of recurrence risk after zero-fluoroscopy catheter ablation for patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation.BMC research notes · 2026Article
- Interaction between clinical and genetic risk of atrial fibrillation in the danish diet, cancer and health cohort.Open heart · 2026Article
87 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
14 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe long-term probability of developing atrial fibrillation (AF) considering genetic predisposition and clinical risk factor burden is unknown.
methodsWe estimated the lifetime risk of AF in individuals from the community-based Framingham Heart Study. Polygenic risk for AF was derived using a score of ≈1000 AF-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Clinical risk factor burden was calculated for each individual using a validated risk score for incident AF comprised of height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking status, antihypertensive medication use, diabetes mellitus, history of myocardial infarction, and history of heart failure. We estimated the lifetime risk of AF within tertiles of polygenic and clinical risk.
resultsAmong 4606 participants without AF at 55 years of age, 580 developed incident AF (median follow-up, 9.4 years; 25th-75th percentile, 4.4-14.3 years). The lifetime risk of AF >55 years of age was 37.1% and was substantially influenced by both polygenic and clinical risk factor burden. Among individuals free of AF at 55 years of age, those in low-polygenic and clinical risk tertiles had a lifetime risk of AF of 22.3% (95% confidence interval, 15.4-9.1), whereas those in high-risk tertiles had a risk of 48.2% (95% confidence interval, 41.3-55.1). A lower clinical risk factor burden was associated with later AF onset after adjusting for genetic predisposition (
conclusionsIn our community-based cohort, the lifetime risk of AF was 37%. Estimation of polygenic AF risk is feasible and together with clinical risk factor burden explains a substantial gradient in long-term AF risk.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.