ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2017
Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 21 citations in OpenAlex.
- Technology-assisted visceral surgery: a model-based approach for quantifying translation and accessibility across populations and geographies.International journal of computer assisted radiology and surgery · 2026Article
- Dialysis nurse demand in Europe: an estimated prediction based on modelling.Clinical kidney journal · 2024Article
- Mapping Access to Children's Hospitals in Texas.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2024Article
- Accessibility of Rural Life Space on the Jianghan Plain, China: The Role of Livelihood.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Number of long-term inpatients in Japanese psychiatric care beds: trend analysis from the patient survey and the 630 survey.BMC psychiatry · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Accessibility to healthcare service providers, the quantity, and the quality of them are important for national health. In this study, we focused on geographic accessibility to estimate and evaluate future demand and supply of healthcare services. We constructed a simulation model called the patient access area model (PAAM), which simulates patients' access time to healthcare service institutions using a geographic information system (GIS). Using this model, to evaluate the balance of future healthcare services demand and supply in small areas, we estimated the number of inpatients every five years in each area and compared it with the number of hospital beds within a one-hour drive from each area. In an experiment with the Tokyo metropolitan area as a target area, when we assumed hospital bed availability to be 80%, it was predicted that over 78,000 inpatients would not receive inpatient care in 2030. However, this number would decrease if we lowered the rate of inpatient care by 10% and the average length of the hospital stay. Using this model, recommendations can be made regarding what action should be undertaken and by when to prevent a dramatic increase in healthcare demand. This method can help plan the geographical resource allocation in healthcare services for healthcare policy.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.