ArticleTransboundary and emerging diseases2018
Inferring within-herd transmission parameters for African swine fever virus using mortality data from outbreaks in the Russian Federation.
Article in Transboundary and emerging diseases, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 41 papers.
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Who cites it
41 citing papers in PubMed.
- Modelling African Swine Fever Transmission and Epidemiology: A Scoping Review of Mechanistic, Statistical, and Machine Learning Approaches.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Review
- Early Detection and Long-Term Monitoring as a Strategy for African Swine Fever Outbreak Control and a Comparative Study on the Reproductive Performance of Convalescent and Naïve Sows in a Commercial Farm in Thailand.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2026Article
- A multi-host mechanistic model of African swine fever emergence and control in Romania.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Development and application of whole-herd-sampling, qPCR-based-testing, and precision-removal methods to eliminate ASFV in four large swine herds in China.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Disease outbreak data to inform decision-making: the role of disease spread models in the Lao P.D.R. African Swine Fever epidemic, 2019.Tropical animal health and production · 2025Article
- An update on active and passive surveillance for African swine fever in the Dominican Republic.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Optimizing contact tracing for avian influenza in poultry flocks.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Risk assessment of African swine fever transmission by spray-dried porcine plasma in piglet feed and the effect of UV irradiation treatment as an additional safety step.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2025Article
- Identifying effective surveillance measures for swine pathogens using contact networks and mathematical modeling.PloS one · 2025Article
- Pathogenicity and virulence of African swine fever virus.Virulence · 2024Review
- The Reproduction Number of Swine Viral Respiratory Diseases: A Systematic Review.Veterinary sciences · 2024Review
- Novel estimation of African swine fever transmission parameters within smallholder villages in Lao P.D.R.Tropical animal health and production · 2024Article
- African swine fever in wild boar: investigating model assumptions and structure.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Modeling Singapore's First African Swine Fever Outbreak in Wild Boar Populations.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2024Article
- Article
- Assessing the epidemiological risk at the human-wild boar interface through a one health approach using an agent-based model in Barcelona, Spain.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2023Article
- Epidemiological Assessment of African Swine Fever Spread in the Dominican Republic.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Estimation of a Within-Herd Transmission Rate for African Swine Fever in Vietnam.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2023Article
- Estimating transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus from experimental studies.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2022Article
- Dynamic Models of Within-Herd Transmission and Recommendation for Vaccination Coverage Requirement in the Case of African Swine Fever in Vietnam.Veterinary sciences · 2022Article
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6 authors.
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Abstract
Mortality data are routinely collected for many livestock and poultry species, and they are often used for epidemiological purposes, including estimating transmission parameters. In this study, we infer transmission rates for African swine fever virus (ASFV), an important transboundary disease of swine, using mortality data collected from nine pig herds in the Russian Federation with confirmed outbreaks of ASFV. Parameters in a stochastic model for the transmission of ASFV within a herd were estimated using approximate Bayesian computation. Estimates for the basic reproduction number varied amongst herds, ranging from 4.4 to 17.3. This was primarily a consequence of differences in transmission rate (range: 0.7-2.2), but also differences in the mean infectious period (range: 4.5-8.3 days). We also found differences amongst herds in the mean latent period (range: 5.8-9.7 days). Furthermore, our results suggest that ASFV could be circulating in a herd for several weeks before a substantial increase in mortality is observed in a herd, limiting the usefulness of mortality data as a means of early detection of an outbreak. However, our results also show that mortality data are a potential source of data from which to infer transmission parameters, at least for diseases which cause high mortality.
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