ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2017
Climatic Variables and Malaria Morbidity in Mutale Local Municipality, South Africa: A 19-Year Data Analysis.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 126 citations in OpenAlex.
- Association between temperature and malaria (1959-2019): a systematic review and meta-analysis.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2025Pooled it
- Climate change adaptation in South Africa: a case study on the role of the health sector.Globalization and health · 2019Pooled it
- Water-Energy-Food Security and Health in South Africa: A Scoping Review.JAMA network open · 2026Article
- Modelling the impact of climate variability on malaria morbidity in the Tamale Metropolitan Area: a time series analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Mapping malaria risk using geospatial and AHP approaches in Nsanje District, Malawi.Epidemiology and infection · 2026Article
- Malaria at the margins: climatic extremes, migration, and urban informal settlement risk in South Africa.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Association of Climate Variables with Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Cases in Mandoto, Madagascar: A Statistical Modeling Study.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2026Article
- A review of historical trends in Anopheles gambiae Giles (Diptera: Culicidae) complex composition, collection trends and environmental effects from 2009 to 2021 in Mpumalanga province, South Africa.Medical and veterinary entomology · 2025Review
- Associations of temperature and precipitation with malaria in children under 5: A multi-country study in Sub-Saharan Africa.PloS one · 2025Article
- Extreme precipitation, exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change, drove Peru's record-breaking 2023 dengue outbreak.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Potential impact of climatic factors on malaria in Rwanda between 2012 and 2021: a time-series analysis.Malaria journal · 2024Article
- The Impact of Climatic Factors on Temporal Mosquito Distribution and Population Dynamics in an Area Targeted for Sterile Insect Technique Pilot Trials.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2024Article
- Mathematical modeling of malaria transmission dynamics in humans with mobility and control states.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Geo-epidemiology of malaria incidence in the Vhembe District to guide targeted elimination strategies, South-Africa, 2015-2018: a local resurgence.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Spatiotemporal and meteorological relationships in dengue transmission in the Dominican Republic, 2015-2019.Tropical medicine and health · 2023Article
- Household living conditions and individual behaviours associated with malaria risk: a community-based survey in the Limpopo River Valley, 2020, South Africa.Malaria journal · 2023Article
- Spatio-temporal analysis of environmental and climatic factors impacts on malaria morbidity in Ondo State, Nigeria.Heliyon · 2023Article
- Geospatial based model for malaria risk prediction in Kilombero valley, South-eastern, Tanzania.PloS one · 2023Article
- Driving effect of multiplex factors on human brucellosis in high incidence region, implication for brucellosis based on one health concept.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2022Article
- Forecasting Malaria Morbidity to 2036 Based on Geo-Climatic Factors in the Democratic Republic of Congo.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The north-eastern parts of South Africa, comprising the Limpopo Province, have recorded a sudden rise in the rate of malaria morbidity and mortality in the 2017 malaria season. The epidemiological profiles of malaria, as well as other vector-borne diseases, are strongly associated with climate and environmental conditions. A retrospective understanding of the relationship between climate and the occurrence of malaria may provide insight into the dynamics of the disease's transmission and its persistence in the north-eastern region. In this paper, the association between climatic variables and the occurrence of malaria was studied in the Mutale local municipality in South Africa over a period of 19-year. Time series analysis was conducted on monthly climatic variables and monthly malaria cases in the Mutale municipality for the period of 1998-2017. Spearman correlation analysis was performed and the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was developed. Microsoft Excel was used for data cleaning, and statistical software R was used to analyse the data and develop the model. Results show that both climatic variables' and malaria cases' time series exhibited seasonal patterns, showing a number of peaks and fluctuations. Spearman correlation analysis indicated that monthly total rainfall, mean minimum temperature, mean maximum temperature, mean average temperature, and mean relative humidity were significantly and positively correlated with monthly malaria cases in the study area. Regression analysis showed that monthly total rainfall and monthly mean minimum temperature (
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