ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2017
Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Postglacial genetic legacies and climate-driven demography inform conservation of silver fir.Annals of botany · 2026Article
- Stage-Specific Responses to Warming in Trojan Fir Across Early Life Stages: Germination, Seedling Survival, and Seedling Growth.Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Longer growing seasons will not offset growth loss in drought-prone temperate forests of Central-Southeast Europe.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Under Stress: Searching for Genes Involved in the Response ofInternational journal of molecular sciences · 2024Article
- Tree-Level Growth Patterns and Genetic Associations Depict Drought Legacies in the Relict Forests ofPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Warming appears as the main risk of non-adaptedness for western Mediterranean relict fir forests under expected climate change scenarios.Frontiers in plant science · 2023Article
- Transcriptome Analysis and Intraspecific Variation in Spanish Fir (International journal of molecular sciences · 2022Article
- Climate sensitivity of seasonal radial growth in young stands of Mexican conifers.International journal of biometeorology · 2022Article
- Impact of an Extremely Dry Period on Tree Defoliation and Tree Mortality in Serbia.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Unexpected resilience in relictFrontiers in plant science · 2022Article
- Early diversification and permeable species boundaries in the Mediterranean firs.Annals of botany · 2020Article
- Using ForeStereo and LIDAR data to assess fire and canopy structure-related risks in relictPeerJ · 2020Article
- Wood anatomical traits highlight complex temperature influence on Pinus cembra at high elevation in the Eastern Alps.International journal of biometeorology · 2018Article
- Post-drought Resilience After Forest Die-Off: Shifts in Regeneration, Composition, Growth and Productivity.Frontiers in plant science · 2018Article
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Authors and funding
15 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950-2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.
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