Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29097090›Full record

ReviewTrends in microbiology2018

Predictive Modeling of Influenza Shows the Promise of Applied Evolutionary Biology.

Dylan H Morris, Katelyn M Gostic, Simone Pompei, Trevor Bedford, Marta Łuksza, Richard A Neher, Bryan T Grenfell, Michael Lässig, John W McCauley

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Trends in microbiology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 89 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
89citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

89 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  5. V- and VNature communications · 2026
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  18. Review
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  20. Concepts and Methods for Predicting Viral Evolution.Methods in molecular biology (Clifton, N.J.) · 2025
    Article

29 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Dylan H MorrisDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA. Electronic address: dhmorris@princeton.edu.
Katelyn M GosticDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Simone PompeiInstitute for Theoretical Physics, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
Trevor BedfordVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Marta ŁukszaInstitute for Advanced Study, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Richard A NeherBiozentrum, University of Basel and Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Basel, Switzerland.
Bryan T GrenfellDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Michael LässigInstitute for Theoretical Physics, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
John W McCauleyWorldwide Influenza Centre, Francis Crick Institute, London, UK.

Funding

Scientific ReagentsP01CA087497 · NCI · COLUMBIA UNIV NEW YORK MORNINGSIDE · PI CORDON-CARDO, CARLOS · 2000 to 2021
$35.4M
Real-time tracking of virus evolution for vaccine strain selection and epidemiological investigationR35GM119774 · NIGMS · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI BEDFORD, TREVOR BC · 2016 to 2025
$4.1M
High-throughput experiments to guide influenza vaccine strain selectionR01AI127893 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI BLOOM, JESSE D · 2016 to 2020
$2.1M
Scientific and Technical Computing CoreP2CHD047879 · NICHD · PRINCETON UNIVERSITY · PI SALGANIK, MATTHEW J. · 2014 to 2018
$2.0M
Epidemiological impacts of broadly protective childhood HA imprinting on seasonal and pandemic influenzaF31AI134017 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI GOSTIC, KATELYN MARIE · 2017 to 2018
$76k
Cancer Research UK FC001030Medical Research Council FC001030Medical Research Council MC_U117512723NCI NIH HHS P01 CA087497NIAID NIH HHS F31 AI134017NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI127893NICHD NIH HHS P2C HD047879NIGMS NIH HHS R35 GM119774Wellcome Trust FC001030
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Seasonal influenza is controlled through vaccination campaigns. Evolution of influenza virus antigens means that vaccines must be updated to match novel strains, and vaccine effectiveness depends on the ability of scientists to predict nearly a year in advance which influenza variants will dominate in upcoming seasons. In this review, we highlight a promising new surveillance tool: predictive models. Based on data-sharing and close collaboration between the World Health Organization and academic scientists, these models use surveillance data to make quantitative predictions regarding influenza evolution. Predictive models demonstrate the potential of applied evolutionary biology to improve public health and disease control. We review the state of influenza predictive modeling and discuss next steps and recommendations to ensure that these models deliver upon their considerable biomedical promise.

Indexed as

Biological EvolutionForecastingInfluenza, HumanInfluenza VaccinesAntigens, ViralDecision Support TechniquesDisease OutbreaksHemagglutination Inhibition TestsHumansOrthomyxoviridaePublic HealthSeasonsVaccinationWorld Health OrganizationAntigens, ViralInfluenza VaccinesInfluenzaPredictive evolutionpredictive modelingvaccine strain selection

Identifiers

PMID29097090
PMCPMC5830126

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.